BoE & Media Say Trump Tariffs Causing London Metal Run - Data Says That Is Not So

Customer Accounts Are Taking Massive Delivery Of Gold And Silver Bullion

There has been a steady mantra repeated in the media and by the Bank of England that the current run on physical gold in the US and export of gold bars to New York is due to fears of President Trump’s tariffs.

Market data indicate that the claims that tariffs are driving gold imports into New York are not correct.

Following are several examples of the legacy media claiming tariff fears are driving gold importation into the US:

“The rush to ship gold from London to the US to take advantage of premium prices is fueling strong demand for slots to withdraw metal from the Bank of England’s vault, an official said.” - Bloomberg February 6, 2025

“Gold prices hit an all-time high on Monday, bolstered by safe-haven inflows after U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico added to concerns of inflation that would dent economic growth.” - Reuters February 3, 2025

“London is in the grips of a gold shortage as traders line up for weeks to get bars out of the Bank of England and ship them to the U.S. amid fears that the new Trump administration will levy tariffs on imports.” Fortune January 31, 2025

“A surge in gold shipments to the US has led to a shortage of bullion in London, as traders amass an $82bn stockpile in New York over fears of Trump administration tariffs.” Financial Times January 29, 2025

A Look At COMEX Data Indicates Accelerated Importation Of Gold Is Not Driven By Tariff Fears

If tariff fears are driving the massive importation of gold and silver bullion into the US, then it could be anticipated that the bullion banks themselves are the entities taking delivery of the imported bullion.

On February 7, 2025, Michael Lynch of Michael Lynch On Gold And Silver (give Michael a follow!) noted in his article It Is Blowout Demand By COMEX Customer Accounts Driving Gold And Silver ... Nothing Else that COMEX data indicate bullion banks themselves are not taking delivery of gold and silver bullion but, instead, customer accounts are taking delivery:

“Most importantly, the rush to buy metal is driven by non-bullion banks. So far just one week into the February gold contract, over 2 million oz has transferred from bullion banks to customer accounts. That exceeds the entire total for any prior contract by more than a factor of 3….

…Things to point out … the net buying by customer accounts on the February contract at over 2.0 million oz has exceeded any other contract in comex history by more than 3X. In addition, the largest net sell by non-bullion banks was only 2 contracts prior. This 2 month change is enormous. …

… So, we’ve just seen the largest change in direction of customer moving from a strong sell to a record buy. This plot suggests a huge buy signal. As of yesterday’s comex reports, the buying deluge continues. I’ll bring you updates in the days to come.

Forgot to mention … tariffs have nothing to do with this. This is all about customer accounts at comex thirsty for metal.”

It will be interesting to see over time if we can get any hints of exactly whom is buying gold and silver bullion and taking delivery in such large size.

Best regards,

David Jensen