Over the next several weeks, as implications of the new US tariff regime are digested, the following are some near term trends that I am expecting to take hold:
The 10 Y Treasury yield crashed below 4%, so many took perceived safety in bonds. With exception of the windfall the systemic banks got from their silver shorts, they have commercial loan issues not to mention the pressures from higher priced goods on consumers and inevitably, their loans. Businesses will pass on their costs to consumers and keep their margins temporarily until the consumer can no longer afford their mcmansions. Utilities seem like a possible refuge, but it also seems physical silver may cover deliveries at the Comex short term, yet retail silver orders that normally arrive in days are delayed weeks. Why? With a 100+ GSR and gold at all time highs, swapping a portion of gold for silver seems to make some sense once we find a silver bottom. Based on last week, this is the first time in a long time there seems to be no circuit breakers or plunge protection team. The last time the dow had a 1000 point drop, eight brokerage conveniently had online tech problems. No so last week. If the KBE or banks tank, then the Fed will QE and silver might soar. That is my game plan, but only if I can remain solvent till the Fed acts.
The Yield curve is telling us that rates are going lower not higher. The Bond market is the one to watch and it is anticipating the reasonable chance of a recession and Fed action on rates. Bank stocks are under pressure and that more than anything will force the hand of the Fed responding to an equity market rout, but particularly Bank equities.
Yes - it seems all too few Analyst's ( You and Alasdair apart notably ) seem to factor in the huge $ 30 - $ 34 x Trillion amount in Dollar asset sales that an army of erstwhile overseas investors will be wanting to offload in double quick time
as this financial shit-show sheds more wheels as it carrers out of control down the track to evisceration ..!!
Agree that rates will likley be lowered - but can only see this happening on a relatively short term / short lived asis before ' Events ' force them back up again with some impetus .
Nothing has changed. The market decline has been expected and predicted since at least late January or early February. I spoke with someone on February 22,2025 stating that late March or early April would see a decline of the stock market!
Gold is going to keep rising; interest rates will continue to rise. NOTHING HAS CHANGED.
Suppose it's got to be everything that's most liquid ( P.M's ) that will be amongst the first things to be flogged off as we enter - ' The Margin Call - Valley Of Death ' .
Bitcoin / Crypto in general seems to pretty much mirror the moves up and down as displayed by the ' Less than Magnificent 7 ' and the tech sector in general . Question is how long before the whole complex head's south with avengance ..?? - or is this just a pipe dream on my part
Am expecting: stronger dollar, near term consolidation in gold, whipsawing of commodities, inflow of $$$ to U.S. stocks over next couple of months from Europeans looking to escape coming capital controls, Powell to lower interest rates. Who knows. I might just throw darts!
Personally - I think that dear old ' George ' is clearly some form of cold blooded reptillian life form ( look at that horrible face ) who like the late and un-lamented ( if actually dead ) David Rockefeller & Jacob Rothschild- is destined for his own personal cryogenic capsule down in Antartica amongst the Emporer Penguins .
Agree - almost impossible to call this with any degree of absoloute certainty as there are so many factors that could push it all in any one of a number of directions .
As regards you're selling your physical Gold & Silver holding's now with a view to being able to buy them back " On the Cheap " later on . Think , given the extreme situation we're facing ( as never before ) - that unless you can time it to perfection - how this could easilly back-fire on you ' IF ' the metals make a relatively small retracement and then get the rocket ship treatment soon after & in double quick time
Gold has completed a fractal from the November 2024 low and is likely to correct here as Time catches up with Price. Relative strength is encouraging. Short term traders likely to reduce or exit.
Regardless of Silver being hammered I believe PM’s are now in an Elliott Wave 3 which is often the most powerful wave.
I think maybe tariffs will not necessarily cause inflation. On very large effect, would be a large increase in BMW, etc., prices, and people would not buy them. Not sure how BLS adjusts for the short term change in volume of items.
In this case, I think Bessent and Trump both see currency trouble coming and are on-shoring as much production as they can beforehand.
Bessent's biggest holding is gold and Trump continually talks about a coming golden age - I think this whole issue goes beyond evening-out trade barriers.
If Bessent and Trump can't see currency trouble coming nor what's been feeding this tumour all this time - then they must be blind & stupid - which frankly I don't think either are . ' BUT ' as regards on-shoring any level of meaningful production / industrial capacity within any sort of time frame that's going to help keep the ' SS - U.S. Economy / Titanic ' afloat for very much longer - then this has got to be impossible and both they and their moronic cohort - have OD'd on the ' Kool Aid ' for the very last time .
Gold and silver sold off for liquidity.
As usual, keep stacking physical and BTFD!
The 10 Y Treasury yield crashed below 4%, so many took perceived safety in bonds. With exception of the windfall the systemic banks got from their silver shorts, they have commercial loan issues not to mention the pressures from higher priced goods on consumers and inevitably, their loans. Businesses will pass on their costs to consumers and keep their margins temporarily until the consumer can no longer afford their mcmansions. Utilities seem like a possible refuge, but it also seems physical silver may cover deliveries at the Comex short term, yet retail silver orders that normally arrive in days are delayed weeks. Why? With a 100+ GSR and gold at all time highs, swapping a portion of gold for silver seems to make some sense once we find a silver bottom. Based on last week, this is the first time in a long time there seems to be no circuit breakers or plunge protection team. The last time the dow had a 1000 point drop, eight brokerage conveniently had online tech problems. No so last week. If the KBE or banks tank, then the Fed will QE and silver might soar. That is my game plan, but only if I can remain solvent till the Fed acts.
Incredible volatility and flux seems to be the only guarantee over the next few weeks.
The Fed has a bad problem no matter what trade policy is.
The Yield curve is telling us that rates are going lower not higher. The Bond market is the one to watch and it is anticipating the reasonable chance of a recession and Fed action on rates. Bank stocks are under pressure and that more than anything will force the hand of the Fed responding to an equity market rout, but particularly Bank equities.
Perhaps a tug of war is taking place between offshore market (sellers) and onshore market (buyers).
Yes - it seems all too few Analyst's ( You and Alasdair apart notably ) seem to factor in the huge $ 30 - $ 34 x Trillion amount in Dollar asset sales that an army of erstwhile overseas investors will be wanting to offload in double quick time
as this financial shit-show sheds more wheels as it carrers out of control down the track to evisceration ..!!
Agree that rates will likley be lowered - but can only see this happening on a relatively short term / short lived asis before ' Events ' force them back up again with some impetus .
Think that ' QE ' is potentially closer than many think and agree that this will / should
ignite the afterburner under the precious metal's - especially Silver . Great Post .
Nothing has changed. The market decline has been expected and predicted since at least late January or early February. I spoke with someone on February 22,2025 stating that late March or early April would see a decline of the stock market!
Gold is going to keep rising; interest rates will continue to rise. NOTHING HAS CHANGED.
Crypto down too. Will the printers be fired up in a big way? Let’s watch.
A lot of things are going to be sold to reduce the margin debt.
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/415/us-margin-debt
Will be interesting to follow over next few weeks as the markets choose a path.
Suppose it's got to be everything that's most liquid ( P.M's ) that will be amongst the first things to be flogged off as we enter - ' The Margin Call - Valley Of Death ' .
or is this a false assumption ..??
Bitcoin / Crypto in general seems to pretty much mirror the moves up and down as displayed by the ' Less than Magnificent 7 ' and the tech sector in general . Question is how long before the whole complex head's south with avengance ..?? - or is this just a pipe dream on my part
A good summary. Nothing to add to that.
Thank you, David. I always enjoy your analysis.
Am expecting: stronger dollar, near term consolidation in gold, whipsawing of commodities, inflow of $$$ to U.S. stocks over next couple of months from Europeans looking to escape coming capital controls, Powell to lower interest rates. Who knows. I might just throw darts!
rate cut incoming, they need to refinance trillions by june
' IF ' they're going to do this then they need to get on withit tout-suite' .
Think this may be a case of TPTB being somewhat behind the ' 8 Ball '
Mr. Scott Bessent will look for a new position--one that does not entail his signature on the face of USA money.
??
Soros crossed Bessent in wisconsin judge race days ago; his value to trump is much diminished. okay?
he is 94 years old and still at it.
Personally - I think that dear old ' George ' is clearly some form of cold blooded reptillian life form ( look at that horrible face ) who like the late and un-lamented ( if actually dead ) David Rockefeller & Jacob Rothschild- is destined for his own personal cryogenic capsule down in Antartica amongst the Emporer Penguins .
Simon, have you been witness to the demeanor of George Soros' son? He acts brow-beaten; meaning (to me) that the old man is roughing him up, still.
I think yields will decrease as money goes out of the stock market and into bonds. Then into bitcoin and gold.
I think gold will go down, but it will be much more resilient than silver that will find support at $25.
Miners will decrease.
I'm selling now and buying back at the bottom.
See y'all at the bottom 🤪🤣🤧
That is the conventional model.
We've also seen periods where yields rose and equities fell such as the 1970s.
We will see how this shakes-out.
Agree - almost impossible to call this with any degree of absoloute certainty as there are so many factors that could push it all in any one of a number of directions .
As regards you're selling your physical Gold & Silver holding's now with a view to being able to buy them back " On the Cheap " later on . Think , given the extreme situation we're facing ( as never before ) - that unless you can time it to perfection - how this could easilly back-fire on you ' IF ' the metals make a relatively small retracement and then get the rocket ship treatment soon after & in double quick time
Oh no....im not unstacking.
I sold paper. Gld, gdx and silver miners.
Possessing physical is getting harder.
Soon, i expect a "bid-no offer" for physical gold and silver....a term coined by David Jensen..
Gold has completed a fractal from the November 2024 low and is likely to correct here as Time catches up with Price. Relative strength is encouraging. Short term traders likely to reduce or exit.
Regardless of Silver being hammered I believe PM’s are now in an Elliott Wave 3 which is often the most powerful wave.
I think maybe tariffs will not necessarily cause inflation. On very large effect, would be a large increase in BMW, etc., prices, and people would not buy them. Not sure how BLS adjusts for the short term change in volume of items.
Excellent and insightful analysis ( as per usual ) .
I’ll be playing the casino of the VIX hoping to recoup some of my losses. Wish me luck!
Good Luck ...!!
Interestingly I heard a farmer say cattle (beef) prices dropped substantially because of fear of dried up export market - sounds deflationary for food
Oil to $40, massively deflationary popping the bubble. The consumer is in trouble aka banks. What derivative blows up is my question.
There's "only" $8-9 QUADrillion of derivatives exposure out there. LOL
I'm interested to hear the lies that will be told to cover when those degenerate bets start unraveling.
The " Un-Ravelling " can't be that far off & will be sight to behold when it happens
I think Thomas Sowell on Trump's Tariffs video clip by Hoover Institution is spot on
Do you have a link?
https://youtu.be/q9LYO_qFLeE?si=zpdYYyVOKScfjkED
I like Sowell.
In this case, I think Bessent and Trump both see currency trouble coming and are on-shoring as much production as they can beforehand.
Bessent's biggest holding is gold and Trump continually talks about a coming golden age - I think this whole issue goes beyond evening-out trade barriers.
If Bessent and Trump can't see currency trouble coming nor what's been feeding this tumour all this time - then they must be blind & stupid - which frankly I don't think either are . ' BUT ' as regards on-shoring any level of meaningful production / industrial capacity within any sort of time frame that's going to help keep the ' SS - U.S. Economy / Titanic ' afloat for very much longer - then this has got to be impossible and both they and their moronic cohort - have OD'd on the ' Kool Aid ' for the very last time .
We are heading for a currency crisis. Good luck importing goods with destabilized fiat.
PRECISELY ..!!