Continued Drop In US Weekly Supply From Crude Oil SPR - Access Issues?
The US draw of crude oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) dropped during the week to July 24, 2026 to 3.8 million (M) barrels (bbl) down from a weekly peak of 9.9M bbl in May 2026.
The 3 week moving average of weekly crude draws dropped to 3.9M bbl.
Figure 1 - Daily SPR Crude Draw - 3 Week Moving Average To July 24, 2026; data source: US EIA
According to the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), daily US crude oil exports have dropped from a peak of 6.4M bpd in April 2026 to the current 3.5M bpd.
In a world that is short of crude oil and petroleum fuel products, the continued decline of US crude oil draws are an indication that warnings from industry experts that US SPR crude reserves have an effective operating bottom near 300M bbl may be correct.
Given current US SPR crude storage levels of just 307.7M bbl at July 24, this decline of market supply draws our attention.
Meanwhile, the supply of motor oil dependent upon disrupted precursor ‘base oil’ shipments from the Persian Gulf continues to tighten.
If these trends continue, we can expect much higher oil prices globally with price inflation price shocks and quickly increasing interest rates.
Let’s watch the weekly EIA data on Wednesday and also monitor the President and Administration officials to see if they continually try to talk down the oil market, as we would expect if the SPR is seeing material limitations in its ability to deliver crude oil to the market.
Best regards,
David Jensen
It’s not what you got… it’s what you give🎵🎵🎵
Thanks David!
David, your statement that the " its [the SPR's] ability to deliver crude oil to the market... " is virtually exhausted, is verified by only a quick look at the nature of the storage facilities, and the public reports of drawdowns.
Looking at Precious Metals, one of your topics, for a moment, this is interesting: a post today, 8/4/2026, at Riko at Kardamow which analyzes Friday's special report from Deutsche Bank's desk, regarding recent thinking on gold from the Bank for International Settlements :
QUOTE from Kardamow:
" The ratio frameworks price gold as a commodity: a thing arbitraged against oil, copper and flour, reverting to relative values set by production costs and substitution.
The fair-value model — the one Deutsche Bank overweights — prices gold as a reserve asset, sensitive to real rates, equities and the dollar, carrying an eleven per cent uplift for official-sector demand that no commodity framework can see."
END QUOTE
Deliberations follow.