55 Comments
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Peter Redward's avatar

Yes David, this is what im seeing in published Platinum ETF holdings, with physical platinum allocated in ETFs in London and South Africa falling. Lease rates are so high that institutional holders appear to be selling.

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David Jensen's avatar

Thanks Peter.

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Gerry with a G's avatar

You first started talking about this 7 months ago...so thanks

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el Gallinazo's avatar

Hi David,

1) Plus 10 for adding a new definition of "tenor" to my vocabulary.

2) Speaking of definitions, I am more than a little suspect of how "raided" is being used. Such a passive word. I suspect that the controllers of Platinum ETFs, who have the proper codes to sell and deliver physical inventories, are being bribed. They are being given offers, as Don Corleoni would put it, that they can't refuse.

3) Do buyers of LBMA promissory notes, as a common practice, actually put up any cash when they "buy" a note? If not the full sum, at least some sort of percentage deposit? Or just their "good" word? I realize that this is part of any agreement between two "contracting" parties, but I am just curious about the common practice, as I am trying to figure out exactly which parties are now being screwed and how.

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No1's avatar

2: I think they still need to adher to the laws. I mean, if you have shares, you can get the underlying metal I guess. The big question is: what if there is No1 (pun intended) that wants to sell anymore? Vaults empty, etfs blocked, ...

3: the little fish. Always the little guy. No doubt about that. I'm thinking nickel in 2022 & gamestop episodes: changing of the rules. (more here -- https://no01.substack.com/p/the-big-short)

However, with metals it's not that simple as it's Common Law, so breaking those contracts would break the whole juridical system. But... There's always the Don Corleoni option: settle for cash or else 🔫.

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el Gallinazo's avatar

As I recall, though the nickel f*ck-up was the LBMA's sister exchange for base metals, they didn't "settle" in cash. They simply erased the whole episode as if it didn't happen. That is what I remember. So I guess I am sticking with my dynastic City of London point of view.

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David Jensen's avatar

There is no 'exchange' per se.

Party-to-party private contracts are traded for precious metals in London.

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No1's avatar

No, you remember it correctly. *Poof*, blink and it's gone. Never happened.

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Simon Gedye's avatar

Don't take it for red that ' They ' - " will need to adher to the Laws " as it is ' They '

that draft the laws and pay their political apparatickiks to enact them + they can move the goalposts at will anytime they see fit + even more so don't on any acount assume that if you've - " Got shares you can get the underlying metal " - this is the complete opposite of the situation as exists today and has existed formany years + it sasdly shows a trully staggering levcel of naivety on your part .....THINK ON - Z LOT MORE IN THE WAY OF ' HOMEWORK ' IS NEEDED ....PRONTO .

Do you still believe in the ' Tooth Fairy ' or ' The Easter Bunny ' ...and are you firm in the opinion that Benyamin Netanyahu is bassically a kind and good natured soul who juat happens to be deeply misunderstood by 98% + of humanity ...??

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Peter Jackson's avatar

Very interesting, thanks David.

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David Jensen's avatar

Cheers Peter.

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Rich's avatar

Metal exchanges will default

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Simon Gedye's avatar

No Shit Sherlock ....!!

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Herman Mills's avatar

Call me old fashioned but physical possession is the best position. What’s the point of not being able to take delivery of your metal and being compensated with toilet paper

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Simon Gedye's avatar

Exactly .

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NachoSilver's avatar

Japan’s cessation is tantamount to Nationalization

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ChrisCoonsToupee's avatar

Seems a big time Japanese gold dealer is getting spooked about gold.

Vince Lanci reports Tanaka Precious Metals will limit physical withdrawals starting in December 2025. Fixed bar sizes, account cancellations will settle in cash, and no more automatic delivery.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaioaJi7-wU

Physical uber Alles!

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David Jensen's avatar

Getting metal out of Tanaka today seems reasonable.

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ChrisCoonsToupee's avatar

Looks like the changes will begin in the middle of December 2025.

https://tt.tanaka.jp/guide/henkyaku/

The document is below. If capable, you have to run it through OCR (Via Bluebeam or Acrobat) in order to be able to copy/paste the text into Google Translate.

https://tt.tanaka.jp/pdf/important_notice_20250715.pdf

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David Jensen's avatar

That's interesting given Tanaka owns Metalor - if anyone has access to a wide variety of bullion weights, it's Tanaka.

Forced cash settlement is what everyone has been worried about.

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Simon Gedye's avatar

Seems like the chickens are all coming home to roost en masse' and pretty much all at the same time ........Waiting for the outcome with baited breath

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Simon Gedye's avatar

Exactly .

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B2's avatar

I've always thought these ETFs mostly trade as if they were (in reality) essentially short positions. The system is always short of physical metal - when either the price starts rising for whatever reason or the custodial banks are pushed to account for their positions, suddenly "the ETFs are holding less metal" -- translate that as "ETF shares previously sold short are being brought back in".

This dynamic doesn't appear in gold (anymore anyway), too big. But these small markets ag pt etc.

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Simon Gedye's avatar

ETF's are and for ever have been a ' Scam ' writ large from their outset . Eric Sprott and many others have been broadcasting the truth on these scheme's for ever and a day .

Plus - whom so ever in their right mind would trust the safety and security of their where with all in any institution that has the likes of , JP Morgan-Chase / HSBC or Blackrock os the trustees ....saying this is a prime case of puting the ' Vampires in charge of the Blood Bank '

is hardly sufficient to describe such a situation .

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Bruce Fox's avatar

They keep stretching and strumming those promissory metals rubber bands. Up another octave so far this month. Impending snap collapse. Better have the real real, physical metals, cause the paper’s value is going in the toilet with a Schmear.

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Simon Gedye's avatar

DAVID - Truly excellent and superbly insaghtful report ( as per normal ) .

Given the vastly greater demands on Silver as opposed to Platinum or Palladium due to its multiple

industrial / strategic uses + its being one of the only 2 x ' True / Historic Monetary Metals ' coupled with the mega - under reported supply side deficits we've seen for 5 x years plus & ongoing , then I can't help but feel that when the SHTF finally & big time , that this ' Market Event ' you've noted will be something for the history books and of a hugely more impactful m,agnitude than anyone will be able to believe or has ever witnessed in the preceeding centuries .

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Dimitri's avatar

Gold is catching big bids x 2 days.

I wonder if platinum is the force lifting all metals.

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David Jensen's avatar

Flight from fiat is intensifying.

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Simon Gedye's avatar

Exactly .

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Ol' Doc Skepsis's avatar

David, do you think PSLV is safe from raiding?

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David Jensen's avatar

The biggest problem that is faced is IMO a bond, currency, and financial crisis with suspension of banking.

PSLV has the ability to gate withdrawals, however it is still part of the financial system.

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Simon Gedye's avatar

Exactly .

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No1's avatar

Nothing is safe, unless you have an army to defend it. And even then.

(only partially kidding)

As long as you don't sell your shares, your part should be safe. (see my comment on el Gallinazo)

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Ol' Doc Skepsis's avatar

Ask Jon Corzine (if you can find him) for the definition of REHYPOTHICATION 🤔

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Simon Gedye's avatar

I suspect that dear old ' John ' is probably holed up in the same area of the world as is the ( late ..?? ) Jeffrey Epstein with hot and cold running ' Hot Young Ass ' and a round the clock MOSSAD / IDF protection system .....least ways that is until the whole shit show goes the way of the Dodo and somebody manage's to bring them both to book

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An Ol' LSO's avatar

But what happens to LBMA when they can't return platinum to the ETFs? How does that work?

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el Gallinazo's avatar

The LBMA is simply an association formed by the Bank of England to put a variety of swindlers in contact with one another. Like the governments, manufacturers, mandating institution, and physicians who facilitated the administration of the clotshots, they ain't responsible for nothing. RIP! As to the individual sellers of the promissory notes of physical they do not have, that is a more interesting question.

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Herman Mills's avatar

I could not have said it better. A club of criminals and scamsters.

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Simon Gedye's avatar

YES ....YES.....YES ... and soon to rot in hell ( hopefully ..?? ) if justice is served .

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Simon Gedye's avatar

Right Over the Target - so succinctly and very well put . Chocolate Medal for You ..!!

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An Ol' LSO's avatar

What I understand is LBMA has the ability to settle trades in Pounds instead of actually delivering the platinum (gold, silver, etc.) It is in the LBMA agreement. But does that extend to borrowing platinum from an ETF?

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David Jensen's avatar

This is not correct Ol' LSO.

The LBMA is a trade association and not an exchange.

The cash contracts are private contracts between two parties for the sale and delivery on demand of physical metal.

The LBMA is not a party to these contracts.

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An Ol' LSO's avatar

Thank you. That clarifies it for me!

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Simon Gedye's avatar

The LBMA could possibly be likened to some old ' Madam ' who is the gatekeeper and facilitator for all of the juicy young Hooker's ..?? .

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el Gallinazo's avatar

English law is determined by whatever the dynastic families running the City of London say it is. Regarding settling in cash, how would that be determined?

The primary problem for the LBMA and the COMEX is when they start to arbitrarily settle in cash, they would lose total control of the price of precious metals, and that would be handed over to the BRICS exchanges in a matter of weeks. It also might bankrupt the 8 giant bullion banks with their enormous shorts. We can hope.

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Intrepid Philosopher's avatar

The Evil 8 will never have any issues as long as Uncle Fed is around to write the checks to bail them out...."Whatever it takes, who could have seen this coming?"

Can't jeopardize the Christmas bonus season now can we? Some things never change, they only get bigger and more in your face.

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Simon Gedye's avatar

YES - the bulk of this foul smelling ' Rot ' can be traced back to ' The City '

and the assorted Khazarian Mafia / European banking famil;y's who sent their progeny ultimately world-wide to spread their disease with ' The City ' at that time and still to this day being the epicentre which pull's all of the strings that everyone else ( Wall Street included ) has to dance to . " A Pox on all of their House's "

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An Ol' LSO's avatar

I understand there is only about 120 million ounces of silver stored at LBMA and the daily paper volume on the exchange is 400 million ounces. One of these days it has to blow-up and take the 8 banks with it. Be horrific for the Western financial system.

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David Jensen's avatar

There is a lot more than 120M oz. of silver stored in London vaults (LBMA is a trade association and does not have vaults).

However, the question is how much of the silver vaulted in London is available to settle billions of oz. of spot contracts.

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Simon Gedye's avatar

I have a vision of high winds and duststorms blowing down a street

of empty shop fronts and homes - with not a single human or animal anywhere to be seen ....... The ' Pale Rider ' enters stage right

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Bruce Fox's avatar

They always get to change the rules in the middle of the game when they’re in a big bind. Look at what happened in the CRIMEX Nickel markets a couple years ago.

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David Jensen's avatar

see comment below.

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el Gallinazo's avatar

My understanding is that the LBMA has no binding but rules only suggestions of how the business might be carried out. Perhaps David could weigh in on that.

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David Jensen's avatar

There is no exchange.

The contracts are private contracts for metal ownership and delivery.

The LBMA's rules are 'expectations'.

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Simon Gedye's avatar

It doesn't work ......' POOF ' .....AND IT's GONE ( Just like Stanley's savings ) .

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