I'll tell you what is worth more than all the gold and silver in the world and that is Integrity!!
Proverbs 22.1 rings more true today than ever before in history and while many people talk about having gold and silver to save us which is just utter nonsense, we need real men of character and integrity that is the only way out of this mess. There has to be consequences in government and business for the theft, fraud, corruption and collusion with foreign countries.
When do you think rates rise David, This is big for Canada and Australia with the real estate bubble that has destroyed the fabric and heart and soul of both countries.
They have paused now and central banks are trying to talk them lower.
My sense is that over the next 24 months they will start to move higher again as defaults on private debt and also government deficits move higher, and QE returns.
QE can push rates lower temporarily but the trend is higher.
Oz; the 'Mortgage rates' are not directly tied to BOC. BOC, The FED and RBA all want lower rates to roll over their short term treasuries (This year), so watch for the completion of the biggest auctions? But, the Commercial Banks all want to start raising rates now to shore up their portfolios? I would expect long term mortgage rates to rise sharply starting now.
You are right integrity is key. I am retired now, have no trading positions and don’t benefit by doing this financially in any way. I am trying to be an advocate for the market and explain the inner workings of true bullion banking, taking no sides. I truly hope you all can make informed decisions on benefit from this. For the record I am bullish both gold and silver high I publicly stated in November Nothing goes straight up. Good luck to all,of you, but it would be good if you understood all the facts vs rumors and half truths. Especially banks are not net short because they are short CME futures as they are long otc London. They perform as an intemdiary between mining companies, investors, consumers, fabricators, funds, central banks……..
If you were really concerned about integrity, I think you’d welcome dialogue instead of immediately blocking folks with a different opinion than yours.
Exactly so ' BUT ' - Wall Street / The City / The Fed / The B of E / The ECB and all this
bunch occupy a permanent - ' Inetgrity Free Zone ' . birds of a feather flock together - and soon hopefully will get destroyed together . As regards " Consequences in government and business for the theft , fraud , corruption and collusion with foreign countries ...." = Fat Chance / Live in Hope ..etc - as we've all witnessed for decades
if not century's - these bastards are essentially teflon coated and however true are the charges against them - nothing sticks and it all slides off them and away down the gutter .
Hopefully not this time though - but I'll not be surprised to see thousands of criminal bad actors sail or fly away into the sunset on their Mega-Yachts & Gulstream's . Funds Intact..!!
Looking at the metals charts, I think things are ready to pop. Ag is testing higher and lots of pressure at the month end. Could be really, really interesting.
Mr. Gottlieb, check your propeller cap and bias at the door. I do believe Trump is on a vengeance tour to tear down the BOE, and European Cabal that tried to tear down Trumps world for the last 10-12 years. Metals will be part of this equation. I’ll gladly take some of that popcorn!
This likewise is an understatement of obvious and immense proportions .
Frankly - I never could make sense of some of the stunts Trump has pulled and he's getting worse by the day . Some of what he's done has been great - but so much more is appaling . Sad to say , I think he's turning out to be a bought and paid for
Zionist / Khazarian Puppet and Netanyahu ' Arse-Licker ' of the first order .
I wouldn't trust him or any of his crew farther than I could throw them ...only good thing is that at least he wasn't ' The Camel - a ) .
So many people have opined in the past that Israel is a satellite state of the USA
but history going back hundreds and hundreds of years goes to show that
the USA - likewise Wall Street / The City / British Empire et al have in fact been the satellite's here - the satellite's of Israel - or more especially the satellites of the Old Money banking powers of europe as personified by such as the Rothschild's - the family who effectively ' Own ' Israel and who engineered the establishment of
the ' Jewish Homeland ' via the Balfour Declaration back in the day .
Politicians being in the pockets of the bankers and subject to ' Honey Trap '
type blackmail isn't a modern day phenomenon - it's gone on for ever and a day
and almost cetainly will cary on in ths way .....Unfortunately .
People who have discovered and now playing the arbitrage game of the NYSE open hours silver slam must be extremely cautious in the upcoming weeks. If the backwardation worsens, a sudden spike in silver price can happen anytime due to short covering.
I think many of these self styled experts, be they bathing in street cred receipts or not, sometimes forget the long game.
A long game that takes into account that all fraud is eventually exposed through one means or another.
I think we will very soon see the LBMA / COMEX situation come to full naked view.
The result I believe, will be a near religious experience for those bullion banks that are exposed to short positions where they do have any insurance against a rapid rise in physical silver deliveries and / or settlement price structures.
It has been at least 30 years of consistent fraudulent paper positions in the precious metals markets, combined with money printing fiat going full on turbo mode to those same class of banks.
They were awash in cash and became greedy.
They have lost the market and through stupidity and arrogance, have created the very scenario that will ensure their doom.
I remember 2008 well. The smartypants crowd on Wall Street doubled down on the idea that it was impossible for a primary brokerage house to go broke.
We will see perhaps more than just two banks go down in flames this time and I am quite sure we will see very good prices on Gulfstream G700 aircraft coming soon.
Seems quite a change of tone indeed. I still can't really figure if he is out there as an independant thinker or to obfuscate / confuse. That he blocked you outright is fishy to say the least...
The block was due to him putting out half truths. Swap dealers are the shortest they have been on the CME, does not mean they weren’t long otc LONDON. WHICH THEY HVE NOW MOVED TO CME. Record physical shipments have been moved by swap dealers into the CME, 150mm ounces.
Also will be interesting to see where the shorts get the physical in Londontown or anywhere to deliver against their shorts. I think that is the problem.lol. He is trying to be relevant.
You are obviously turning a blind eye to 150 mm ounces silver and 24mm ounces of gold that has physically been shipped by banks into the CME. This has clearly created tightness in London silver otc with lease rates at 5 pct, but there is plenty of gold liquidity. There still is access to physical silver just at higher borrowing costs. Banks will probably look to borrow and redeem slv to get more liquidity as free balances are being drawn down. Painting a picture with half the facts unfortunately puts some of your readers at an uninformed position which could cost them if they listen to you, which would be unfortunate. With that said this silver tightness is fundamentally bullish and I have been calling for higher silver since November when silver was $4 lower.
You claim this 223M oz. silver short position is covered in London on the London silver exchange. However:
1) It appears that there may only be a true Free Float of as little as a few 10s of millions of oz. of silver available from London vaults - the rest tightly held by ETFs and private investors;
2) High and rising silver lease rates tell us that there is an insufficient replenishment of silver stocks to London vaults to meet current demand for delivery;
3) LBMA data indicate that there is an open interest of some 5B oz. of physical silver in London in the spot/forward market. The London silver market is thus insolvent and unable to hedge anything.
Even though you are incorrect, I am not blocking you.
You've got a lot of guts posting here after blocking me without allowing the slightest discourse, Robert.
The Swap Dealers are still net short 223M oz. on the CME COMEX.
You claim this short position is covered in London on the London silver exchange however:
1) It appears that there may only be a true Free Float of as little as a few 10s of millions of oz. of silver available from London vaults - the rest tightly held by ETFs and private investors;
2) High and rising silver lease rates tell us that there is an insufficient replenishment of silver stocks to London vaults ;
3) LBMA data indicate that there is an open interest of some 5B oz. of physical silver in London in the spot/forward market. The London silver market is thus insolvent and unable to hedge anything.
Well I am glad you caught him and corrected him. He still has the arrogance of a JPM big shot but you flushed that out nicely. Michael Lynch had an interesting post yesterday as the new COMEX future starts deliveries in 2 days. He is sending warnings too
Let’s see if we can start fresh. I see you have made some good calls going back to Sep 2018 on palladium….I replied as I don’t like being accused by you for making a U turn, when you provided partial informatio and probably misinterpreted some of my posts.. You mention the London Exchange, there is No London Exchange. London is the terminal market for OTC (over the counter trading). As my posts of have stated since November (before tightness began) I forecasted this tightness due to threats of tariffs. Swap dealers run arbitrage books where they are long London otc and short CME, thus not naked short. They usually make money by lending the otc in London out at a higher yield then they bought London and sold CME. Therefore they are not long London so but long London forwards. This is the part you have missed, you can’t look at London free float only, but must also take into account the London forward otc contracts. If they want to reverse out of this by closing efps or shipping the metal to NY (which they have done 150mm ounces), they need to go in and borrow London spot otc. This is where all the tightness is coming from, as they need to borrow back what they lent into the otc market. I have recently also developed a theory where som banks have gone much shorter per the CFTC disaggregted report and swap dealers are now shorter from 19k lots to 45k lots. They borrowed otc and shipped the silver to NY, further depleting the London free stocks nd lease rates are over 5 pct, and forward rates are negative. They can hold this spot silver in CME against being short either May or July. They are earning 4 pct by his trade. Silver will cont into get tighter, I have documented all this for months and have been published in the press as well stating this. I will be willing to unblock you on LinkedIn if we can work this out and not use my name that misrepresents what I am communicating.
Second, there is a defacto London exchange, the London Precious Metals Clearing Ltd. LPMCL that is a software program operated by 4 banks that settles daily OTC trading in London. Very loosely run. Discussed numerous times here. https://www.lpmcl.com/loco-london-clearing
Third, whether banks are long London spot or forwards is a distinction without a difference. That London long position notionally is what is used to counterbalance the NY net short position.
The bottom line is that banks short NY / CME COMEX are not properly hedged in London as the London metal does not exist to back their long positions. Even if the forwards had metal coming, it is a classic banking timing mismatch that blows up.
Fourth, according to the LBMA London daily trading is more than 90% Spot/Cash trading. There is an enormous amount of open cash claims in the London market that are unbacked with metal - billions of oz. See prior postings here. The surging lease rate tells us that adequate silver is not available to market and this can tip a rush to secure metal from the open London spot/cash claims.
London silver has run near zero London lease yields for a very long time until fairly recently so it will be interesting to hear more about your silver lease for profit model.
Finally, your statements have been that bullion banks "Banks are short the CME against being long London otc and otc forwards. They are NOT outrite short metals.”.
If there are billions of oz. of silver claims in London with very little silver available to market, how is that a real hedge - the entire point of the article.
David, what do you mean by "Even if the forwards had metal coming, it is a classic banking timing mismatch that blows up." --> If the metal is coming, then they simply take delivery and ship it to NY? It's not a timing mismatch no? Not like taking immediately deliverable cash (bank accounts) from customers and lending it out on 20y or so (mortgages or so)...
All depends IF the metal is coming of course.
I have to think about a podcast I heard yesterday: there was something about the 80's or 90's there that silver was very high, and there was a crop failure in India at the time. So they had the choice: sell their silver or starve. Choice easily made I'd say. But that swamped the market and silver dropped like a (shiny) rock.
Just wanting to put it out here that supply can come from unexpected places.
"how is that a real hedge" >> As far as I understand, but correct me if I misunderstood, Robert talks about banks. I understand that there are a lot of contracts in London, but 99% of those never ask for physical delivery (even though they can). All I want to say is: what portion of those billions of ozs are from the banks? What are from little fish like us? And what from day traders? Rule of the thumb: 20-80 is surprisingly correct most of the time. So my guess would be 20% banks. Which is close to Roberts' number of 150mm. So they would really need only that part of the metal -- for the people/organizations that really will take delivery.
Unless of course more and more people ask for delivery that is.
Personally: I don't think the lease rate would go up if there wasn't a shortage. And secondly, I don't think tariffs have anything to do with it (I think that's just the excuse for public consumption).
Investment funds, family offices, industrial silver users, hedge funds, etc. hold spot contracts in London thinking they own 'physical' metal.
If a party has sold near futures and gets called for delivery yet only holds an outlying forward in London, they face a timing mismatch. Main point is awaiting real data from Robert on his new realization.
During the 1970s, economists claimed the rampant inflation was caused by an anchovy harvest failure of the coast of Argentina. The anchovies were used for fertilizer and the shortage caused a food price inflation run that rippled around the world. Inflation is never caused by central bankers. They say.
They also say that there is a rule of thumb that when people have to spend more than a third of their income for food, interesting things start to happen.
I'll tell you what is worth more than all the gold and silver in the world and that is Integrity!!
Proverbs 22.1 rings more true today than ever before in history and while many people talk about having gold and silver to save us which is just utter nonsense, we need real men of character and integrity that is the only way out of this mess. There has to be consequences in government and business for the theft, fraud, corruption and collusion with foreign countries.
There has to be rule of law!!
The bond market then currency collapse that is coming is because our government and markets were run by pirates.
Chaos is the inevitable consequence.
When do you think rates rise David, This is big for Canada and Australia with the real estate bubble that has destroyed the fabric and heart and soul of both countries.
Treasury yields started rising in early 2022.
They have paused now and central banks are trying to talk them lower.
My sense is that over the next 24 months they will start to move higher again as defaults on private debt and also government deficits move higher, and QE returns.
QE can push rates lower temporarily but the trend is higher.
Yeah agree, i just thought we may see some sharp rises quite soon, not 24 months out.
Oz; the 'Mortgage rates' are not directly tied to BOC. BOC, The FED and RBA all want lower rates to roll over their short term treasuries (This year), so watch for the completion of the biggest auctions? But, the Commercial Banks all want to start raising rates now to shore up their portfolios? I would expect long term mortgage rates to rise sharply starting now.
NB. I had never expected rates to fall again in this cycle. But, then I'm not wise in the ways of Mz. Yellen and Mr Powell?? Or their Masters.
" Were " ..?? - ARE RUN BY PIRATE's
You are right integrity is key. I am retired now, have no trading positions and don’t benefit by doing this financially in any way. I am trying to be an advocate for the market and explain the inner workings of true bullion banking, taking no sides. I truly hope you all can make informed decisions on benefit from this. For the record I am bullish both gold and silver high I publicly stated in November Nothing goes straight up. Good luck to all,of you, but it would be good if you understood all the facts vs rumors and half truths. Especially banks are not net short because they are short CME futures as they are long otc London. They perform as an intemdiary between mining companies, investors, consumers, fabricators, funds, central banks……..
If you were really concerned about integrity, I think you’d welcome dialogue instead of immediately blocking folks with a different opinion than yours.
Still waiting for data from Robert.
David - Are you able to verify whether that comment did in fact
come from Robert Gottleib ...we'd all like to know
Are you for ' Real ' or just another antagonistic Wall Street Shill ..??
Exactly so ' BUT ' - Wall Street / The City / The Fed / The B of E / The ECB and all this
bunch occupy a permanent - ' Inetgrity Free Zone ' . birds of a feather flock together - and soon hopefully will get destroyed together . As regards " Consequences in government and business for the theft , fraud , corruption and collusion with foreign countries ...." = Fat Chance / Live in Hope ..etc - as we've all witnessed for decades
if not century's - these bastards are essentially teflon coated and however true are the charges against them - nothing sticks and it all slides off them and away down the gutter .
Hopefully not this time though - but I'll not be surprised to see thousands of criminal bad actors sail or fly away into the sunset on their Mega-Yachts & Gulstream's . Funds Intact..!!
Wait! I've just run out of popcorn, save my seat, will ya?
LOL
Get some more in now, it will be $100 a box next year!
Right? or .0001 gram of Au, lol
It is a scary thought, but that time is coming.
And how nutitious is that ..??
$ 100 a box ....At the very least & even then made from toxic plastic packing waste.
Better you take a sandwich + a bag of crisps and a bottle of water from home next time ...You'll save money as well .
Considering the exchanges of the last few hours, this was eerily appropriate ! ✌️
Looking at the metals charts, I think things are ready to pop. Ag is testing higher and lots of pressure at the month end. Could be really, really interesting.
Interesting is an understatement.
Agree wholeheartedly - Hope you're bang on here ( Fingers Crossed )
Should have bought an Industrial Sized Bucket in the first place shouldn't you ..?? .
Mr. Gottlieb, check your propeller cap and bias at the door. I do believe Trump is on a vengeance tour to tear down the BOE, and European Cabal that tried to tear down Trumps world for the last 10-12 years. Metals will be part of this equation. I’ll gladly take some of that popcorn!
Trump is difficult to read.
This likewise is an understatement of obvious and immense proportions .
Frankly - I never could make sense of some of the stunts Trump has pulled and he's getting worse by the day . Some of what he's done has been great - but so much more is appaling . Sad to say , I think he's turning out to be a bought and paid for
Zionist / Khazarian Puppet and Netanyahu ' Arse-Licker ' of the first order .
I wouldn't trust him or any of his crew farther than I could throw them ...only good thing is that at least he wasn't ' The Camel - a ) .
So many people have opined in the past that Israel is a satellite state of the USA
but history going back hundreds and hundreds of years goes to show that
the USA - likewise Wall Street / The City / British Empire et al have in fact been the satellite's here - the satellite's of Israel - or more especially the satellites of the Old Money banking powers of europe as personified by such as the Rothschild's - the family who effectively ' Own ' Israel and who engineered the establishment of
the ' Jewish Homeland ' via the Balfour Declaration back in the day .
Politicians being in the pockets of the bankers and subject to ' Honey Trap '
type blackmail isn't a modern day phenomenon - it's gone on for ever and a day
and almost cetainly will cary on in ths way .....Unfortunately .
Fight 4 Trump!
https://x.com/FNowisthetime/status/1387774917337403396
https://x.com/drawandstrike/status/1904914947236061521?s=61
Wake up to reality. You’re behind the 🎱.
It’s called a set up. Trump is set up to do what he was selected to do. Trump owes big time!
He will do as he’s told.
I'd very much hoped otherwise - but think this could very much be the case .
Time & ' Events ' will tell
People who have discovered and now playing the arbitrage game of the NYSE open hours silver slam must be extremely cautious in the upcoming weeks. If the backwardation worsens, a sudden spike in silver price can happen anytime due to short covering.
I think that time is close.
Guys this is like football: " Bigger they are the harder they fall".
I confess... I don't get why he blocked you. Reposted on X as always...
Thank you Kevin - much appreciated.
Agree with Kevin - how can you / we be sure that he's the real deal .
Because he only tells half a story
Pray tell... what is the other half Robert? Thanks for the response.
Bob got a slap on the wirst I guess. Interesting
Facts and data sit there until one pays attention to them.
Or manipulates them Mr Jensn
Support your allegation with facts.
Awaiting his response with baited breath ........Will it materialise
"The Swap Dealers are net short (CME shorts - CME longs) 223M oz. of silver."
Do you dispute this statement Robert?
NO - he say's that he's retired Or it could be that someone's said they're going
to break his wife's legs and shoot her horse ..??
David , patience will be very well rewarded. Unfortunately everything else is going to get crushed.
Unfortunately.
Excellent post David.
I think many of these self styled experts, be they bathing in street cred receipts or not, sometimes forget the long game.
A long game that takes into account that all fraud is eventually exposed through one means or another.
I think we will very soon see the LBMA / COMEX situation come to full naked view.
The result I believe, will be a near religious experience for those bullion banks that are exposed to short positions where they do have any insurance against a rapid rise in physical silver deliveries and / or settlement price structures.
It has been at least 30 years of consistent fraudulent paper positions in the precious metals markets, combined with money printing fiat going full on turbo mode to those same class of banks.
They were awash in cash and became greedy.
They have lost the market and through stupidity and arrogance, have created the very scenario that will ensure their doom.
I remember 2008 well. The smartypants crowd on Wall Street doubled down on the idea that it was impossible for a primary brokerage house to go broke.
We will see perhaps more than just two banks go down in flames this time and I am quite sure we will see very good prices on Gulfstream G700 aircraft coming soon.
Fraud, when it is discovered by the market is mercilessly cleared.
That time is coming K2S.
and - the sooner the better .
Seems quite a change of tone indeed. I still can't really figure if he is out there as an independant thinker or to obfuscate / confuse. That he blocked you outright is fishy to say the least...
There was no conversation.
Just block.
The block was due to him putting out half truths. Swap dealers are the shortest they have been on the CME, does not mean they weren’t long otc LONDON. WHICH THEY HVE NOW MOVED TO CME. Record physical shipments have been moved by swap dealers into the CME, 150mm ounces.
Not true Robert.
The Swap Dealers are net short (CME shorts - CME longs) 223M oz. of silver.
Although this is a large net short position, Swap Dealers were more short than this in 2016.
https://www.tradingster.com/cot/futures/disagg/084691
Even though you are incorrect, I am not blocking you.
Swaps usually considered the dump money, yes?
If they net short, this actually bullish as the managed money has positioned them on the wrong side of the boat again, yes?
Just trying to make sure I have all my terms in sync … TY David
Swap dealers are bullion banks, NS.
They don't often lose - but they are about to lose big.
Blocked him as he slants what I have said
Support your accusation with facts.
Also will be interesting to see where the shorts get the physical in Londontown or anywhere to deliver against their shorts. I think that is the problem.lol. He is trying to be relevant.
You are obviously turning a blind eye to 150 mm ounces silver and 24mm ounces of gold that has physically been shipped by banks into the CME. This has clearly created tightness in London silver otc with lease rates at 5 pct, but there is plenty of gold liquidity. There still is access to physical silver just at higher borrowing costs. Banks will probably look to borrow and redeem slv to get more liquidity as free balances are being drawn down. Painting a picture with half the facts unfortunately puts some of your readers at an uninformed position which could cost them if they listen to you, which would be unfortunate. With that said this silver tightness is fundamentally bullish and I have been calling for higher silver since November when silver was $4 lower.
You are only telling half the story Robert.
The Swap Dealers are net short (CME shorts - CME longs) 223M oz. of silver.
Although this is a large net short position, Swap Dealers were more short than this in 2016.
https://www.tradingster.com/cot/futures/disagg/084691
You claim this 223M oz. silver short position is covered in London on the London silver exchange. However:
1) It appears that there may only be a true Free Float of as little as a few 10s of millions of oz. of silver available from London vaults - the rest tightly held by ETFs and private investors;
2) High and rising silver lease rates tell us that there is an insufficient replenishment of silver stocks to London vaults to meet current demand for delivery;
3) LBMA data indicate that there is an open interest of some 5B oz. of physical silver in London in the spot/forward market. The London silver market is thus insolvent and unable to hedge anything.
Even though you are incorrect, I am not blocking you.
You've got a lot of guts posting here after blocking me without allowing the slightest discourse, Robert.
what does that really mean in layman's term pls
It means he and his fellow tribe members have locked people in a burning building fueled by worthless paper contracts.
Is that what you call shipping 150mm ounces a physical silver
The Swap Dealers are still net short 223M oz. on the CME COMEX.
You claim this short position is covered in London on the London silver exchange however:
1) It appears that there may only be a true Free Float of as little as a few 10s of millions of oz. of silver available from London vaults - the rest tightly held by ETFs and private investors;
2) High and rising silver lease rates tell us that there is an insufficient replenishment of silver stocks to London vaults ;
3) LBMA data indicate that there is an open interest of some 5B oz. of physical silver in London in the spot/forward market. The London silver market is thus insolvent and unable to hedge anything.
Doubt.jpg
Assuming this isn't a LARP, there would be no need for the overly complicated shell game explanations if the metal was actually there.
" Shell Game " ....precisely
funny people block others who dont agree with them
Well I am glad you caught him and corrected him. He still has the arrogance of a JPM big shot but you flushed that out nicely. Michael Lynch had an interesting post yesterday as the new COMEX future starts deliveries in 2 days. He is sending warnings too
Gottlieb has valuable insight about the London lease rate.
There is no arrogance. I am trying to explain how the market really works.
" How the Market works " OR - How the Market is rigged ..??
Let’s see if we can start fresh. I see you have made some good calls going back to Sep 2018 on palladium….I replied as I don’t like being accused by you for making a U turn, when you provided partial informatio and probably misinterpreted some of my posts.. You mention the London Exchange, there is No London Exchange. London is the terminal market for OTC (over the counter trading). As my posts of have stated since November (before tightness began) I forecasted this tightness due to threats of tariffs. Swap dealers run arbitrage books where they are long London otc and short CME, thus not naked short. They usually make money by lending the otc in London out at a higher yield then they bought London and sold CME. Therefore they are not long London so but long London forwards. This is the part you have missed, you can’t look at London free float only, but must also take into account the London forward otc contracts. If they want to reverse out of this by closing efps or shipping the metal to NY (which they have done 150mm ounces), they need to go in and borrow London spot otc. This is where all the tightness is coming from, as they need to borrow back what they lent into the otc market. I have recently also developed a theory where som banks have gone much shorter per the CFTC disaggregted report and swap dealers are now shorter from 19k lots to 45k lots. They borrowed otc and shipped the silver to NY, further depleting the London free stocks nd lease rates are over 5 pct, and forward rates are negative. They can hold this spot silver in CME against being short either May or July. They are earning 4 pct by his trade. Silver will cont into get tighter, I have documented all this for months and have been published in the press as well stating this. I will be willing to unblock you on LinkedIn if we can work this out and not use my name that misrepresents what I am communicating.
First, the calls I made on the growing palladium shortage and higher prices started in 2015 and 2016. https://safehaven.com/article/36842/wgc-gold-statistical-distortion-londons-palladium-shortage-hsbc-sudden-vault-closures-inducing-client-gold-liquidation and https://safehaven.com/article/44455/londons-palladium-markets-metal-shortage-structure-and-irregular-appearance.
Second, there is a defacto London exchange, the London Precious Metals Clearing Ltd. LPMCL that is a software program operated by 4 banks that settles daily OTC trading in London. Very loosely run. Discussed numerous times here. https://www.lpmcl.com/loco-london-clearing
Third, whether banks are long London spot or forwards is a distinction without a difference. That London long position notionally is what is used to counterbalance the NY net short position.
The bottom line is that banks short NY / CME COMEX are not properly hedged in London as the London metal does not exist to back their long positions. Even if the forwards had metal coming, it is a classic banking timing mismatch that blows up.
Fourth, according to the LBMA London daily trading is more than 90% Spot/Cash trading. There is an enormous amount of open cash claims in the London market that are unbacked with metal - billions of oz. See prior postings here. The surging lease rate tells us that adequate silver is not available to market and this can tip a rush to secure metal from the open London spot/cash claims.
London silver has run near zero London lease yields for a very long time until fairly recently so it will be interesting to hear more about your silver lease for profit model.
Finally, your statements have been that bullion banks "Banks are short the CME against being long London otc and otc forwards. They are NOT outrite short metals.”.
If there are billions of oz. of silver claims in London with very little silver available to market, how is that a real hedge - the entire point of the article.
YES ....YES....YES and ....YES ......That isn't / can't have been a Real Hedge
David, what do you mean by "Even if the forwards had metal coming, it is a classic banking timing mismatch that blows up." --> If the metal is coming, then they simply take delivery and ship it to NY? It's not a timing mismatch no? Not like taking immediately deliverable cash (bank accounts) from customers and lending it out on 20y or so (mortgages or so)...
All depends IF the metal is coming of course.
I have to think about a podcast I heard yesterday: there was something about the 80's or 90's there that silver was very high, and there was a crop failure in India at the time. So they had the choice: sell their silver or starve. Choice easily made I'd say. But that swamped the market and silver dropped like a (shiny) rock.
Just wanting to put it out here that supply can come from unexpected places.
"how is that a real hedge" >> As far as I understand, but correct me if I misunderstood, Robert talks about banks. I understand that there are a lot of contracts in London, but 99% of those never ask for physical delivery (even though they can). All I want to say is: what portion of those billions of ozs are from the banks? What are from little fish like us? And what from day traders? Rule of the thumb: 20-80 is surprisingly correct most of the time. So my guess would be 20% banks. Which is close to Roberts' number of 150mm. So they would really need only that part of the metal -- for the people/organizations that really will take delivery.
Unless of course more and more people ask for delivery that is.
Personally: I don't think the lease rate would go up if there wasn't a shortage. And secondly, I don't think tariffs have anything to do with it (I think that's just the excuse for public consumption).
Investment funds, family offices, industrial silver users, hedge funds, etc. hold spot contracts in London thinking they own 'physical' metal.
If a party has sold near futures and gets called for delivery yet only holds an outlying forward in London, they face a timing mismatch. Main point is awaiting real data from Robert on his new realization.
It’s like Blimpie telling everyone he’ll gladly pay them Tuesday for a hamburger today
If you were ALLOWED to take "good delivery" from one of these scummy exchanges, it would have to be a 1000 troz silver bar.
Personally , I'd take it as a point of honour to have been ' blocked ' by an obvious
J.P. Morgan Swamp Creature like you . Are you able to lay straight in Bed ..??
The price of eggs in the US is now looking a lot like the price of the shiny yellow stuff.
"Pieces of paper with pictures on it so we don't have to kill each other just to get something to eat"
Chocolate eggs in Australia is insane, 2 chocolate eggs for $25 in coles.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/food/what-a-joke-shock-price-of-easter-eggs-at-coles-and-woolies/news-story/e204bfdd888cc090d06e788730fa6382
During the 1970s, economists claimed the rampant inflation was caused by an anchovy harvest failure of the coast of Argentina. The anchovies were used for fertilizer and the shortage caused a food price inflation run that rippled around the world. Inflation is never caused by central bankers. They say.
Anchovies ...This all sounds very ' Fishy ' .....but smells like BULL-SHIT
They also say that there is a rule of thumb that when people have to spend more than a third of their income for food, interesting things start to happen.
What about rent/housing we are in parts of Australia well over 50%, Canada is in same boat.