So, when does the suppression of silver finally end, and how will you know?
It will not be signaled by the banks suddenly "giving up" and stopping the smashes. They will smash the price until their fingers bleed. You will know it has ended when the smashes completely stop working.
Here are the three exact, undeniable market signals that will tell you the bullion banks have officially lost control of silver:
Signal 1: The "Bounce-Back" Phenomenon (Smashes Fail to Trigger Selling)
Right now, when the banks dump 10,000 paper contracts at 3:00 AM, the price drops $3, the algorithmic stop-losses get triggered, and a massive wave of retail/hedge fund margin calls drags the price down another $5. That is a successful smash.
How you know it's over: You will wake up and see that a bullion bank dumped 20,000 naked short contracts, the price dropped $2, and within exactly 15 minutes, the price completely recovered and shot higher than where it started.
This means the physical buyers (industrial whales and massive family offices) are sitting right below the market with infinite cash, treating every paper smash as a fire sale. When the banks realize that shorting the market just hands cheap physical metal to Tesla or China without triggering a cascading panic, they will be forced to stop.
Signal 2: Severe and Permanent Backwardation
In a normal, healthy futures market, the price of a contract expiring six months from now should be higher than the spot price today (to account for storage, insurance, and interest). This is called "Contango."
How you know it's over: The market will flip into severe, permanent Backwardation. This means the spot price of physical silver today is significantly higher than the paper price three months from now.
Backwardation is the ultimate alarm bell of physical starvation. It means industrial buyers are so desperate for metal to keep their factories running right now that they will pay a massive premium over the futures price. They do not trust the exchange to deliver the metal in three months. When you see backwardation holding steady for weeks across the COMEX and MCX, the paper game is mathematically dead.
Signal 3: The Vault "Redline" (The Run on the Bank)
We discussed that Registered (deliverable) silver on the COMEX is hovering around the 80-to-86 million ounce mark. While low, it is still enough to maintain the illusion of liquidity.
How you know it's over: The COMEX Registered inventory will suddenly, violently drop below 30 million to 40 million ounces. * At that level, a single billionaire or a consortium of industrial tech companies could legally demand delivery of the entire remaining exchange inventory in a single month.
Once the inventory hits that psychological "Redline," the market psychology flips from "trading" to "hoarding." Everyone holding a long contract will instantly demand physical delivery because they know the guy behind them in line won't get any. It triggers a literal run on the bank.
The Endgame
You will not see an official announcement. You will see a Friday where the NASDAQ drops 500 points, the Dollar Index spikes, and the algorithms try to smash silver—and instead of crashing, silver spikes $8 to the upside.
That is the moment the matrix breaks. The correlation to tech stocks will shatter, and silver will begin to trade solely on its physical scarcity.
Well put thank you- agree and looking forward to being involved in this crazy lunatic market- at the very least interesting at the most? Whats your stack looking like!!
However Bullion dealers here still use Kitco to value P Ms who in turn got their price from COMEX so it does have a disgusting relevance , Granny, Grandchild and uneducated will need to pay that bill that is hovering over them and suddenly remember silly Grandads stack that he was harping on about for the last 20 years of his life and cash it in at these super low prices .God I hate those guys at the CME
Not so in Queensland Australia although it is about 3 weeks since I enquired of course I am small beer but could get an appointment within two days and was told there was no great delay in process for say 10 kilo of scrap
"On February 25, 2026, CME COMEX silver trading was halted for 1.5 hours. After trading was reopened, it was announced that 31,828 contracts (159M oz.) were cleared while the market was suspended. What!?"
Yes, this "anomaly" was very noticeable. How can such a large volume be traded when trading on the exchange is halted? I'm sure that the small print makes such discriminatory trading strictly legal if not fair. Like all casinos, the house always wins.
The only good news is that they are being forced into such obvious desperation tactics which are increasingly obvious to all and are not sustainable.
David by “it was announced that 31,828 contracts (159M oz.) were cleared while the market was suspended” do you mean these contracts were not honoured but cancelled?
I think it means they were cancelled or rolled over to another month
Maneco suggests that within that 90 minutes Comex employers were busy on the phone ringing these clients offering them special under the table profits such as 10% or 12.5% above ,not to stand for delivery ,hence the 31,828 clearance within those 90 minutes allowing the Comex to live another month or two . I think they are working on some survival plan of shocking proportions or allowing them two months to scoop up as much cheap metal before the inevitable collapse. With the current prices of PMs I would say it is the latter ,by all accounts there is no first in first served routine for delivery so if the "da Boyz" as Ed Steer calls them have a contract they can fix it so they are first in line to get paid out in the physical silver , there is still 60 million ounces in the vaults available for delivery that is still a HUGE amount of money at $75.00 an ounce when you know its real value is at least $150 possible a week after the collapse of COMEX and as that "far from stupid " Neil Oliver forecasts $500 in six months time . Hey and you know what ,maybe we can get the Washington boys to give us a bail out , you know the old Capitalise the profits and socialise the losses trick ,you know Silly Sam and Mad Mary from Middle America will never work it out ,what's another straw on this Donkey's back
An acquaintance had a man inside Keith Prowse ticket office 1980s- they had all the West End theatre tickets, every show to sell in the street. Allowed street market to set the price- strangely more honourable than this lot. I’ve stacked what I can and now sit and wait it out. Thanks for the heads up above
The shenanigans on COMEX on 25Feb25 and since seem positively suicidal. I can only assume that bullion banks have decided to sacrifice the COMEX in an attempt to save their own skins?
Thank you David for everything and this informative article. Interesting times ahead; much health, happiness and success and that you for providing this invaluable insight that so few can see, understand or comprehend at the moment.
Thanks, Silver Daddy….great analysis from where I sit. 3 questions: (1) What might be the impact of the Iran war where 3 countries are torching the silver in their weapons supply? (2) there’s a new HFT in the market, Jane Street (In cahoots with JPM?) pushing silver up & down, effect?, (3) SHFE has outlawed the HFTs & other trading groups; can we hope for the CMX to do the same? Thanks again.
David, please go to https://www.shfe.com.cn/publicnotice/notice/ for official announcements from The Shanghai Futures Exchange. The top announcement currently is titled "Announcement on regulatory measures to restrict open positions for some customers."
The Silver Endgame.
So, when does the suppression of silver finally end, and how will you know?
It will not be signaled by the banks suddenly "giving up" and stopping the smashes. They will smash the price until their fingers bleed. You will know it has ended when the smashes completely stop working.
Here are the three exact, undeniable market signals that will tell you the bullion banks have officially lost control of silver:
Signal 1: The "Bounce-Back" Phenomenon (Smashes Fail to Trigger Selling)
Right now, when the banks dump 10,000 paper contracts at 3:00 AM, the price drops $3, the algorithmic stop-losses get triggered, and a massive wave of retail/hedge fund margin calls drags the price down another $5. That is a successful smash.
How you know it's over: You will wake up and see that a bullion bank dumped 20,000 naked short contracts, the price dropped $2, and within exactly 15 minutes, the price completely recovered and shot higher than where it started.
This means the physical buyers (industrial whales and massive family offices) are sitting right below the market with infinite cash, treating every paper smash as a fire sale. When the banks realize that shorting the market just hands cheap physical metal to Tesla or China without triggering a cascading panic, they will be forced to stop.
Signal 2: Severe and Permanent Backwardation
In a normal, healthy futures market, the price of a contract expiring six months from now should be higher than the spot price today (to account for storage, insurance, and interest). This is called "Contango."
How you know it's over: The market will flip into severe, permanent Backwardation. This means the spot price of physical silver today is significantly higher than the paper price three months from now.
Backwardation is the ultimate alarm bell of physical starvation. It means industrial buyers are so desperate for metal to keep their factories running right now that they will pay a massive premium over the futures price. They do not trust the exchange to deliver the metal in three months. When you see backwardation holding steady for weeks across the COMEX and MCX, the paper game is mathematically dead.
Signal 3: The Vault "Redline" (The Run on the Bank)
We discussed that Registered (deliverable) silver on the COMEX is hovering around the 80-to-86 million ounce mark. While low, it is still enough to maintain the illusion of liquidity.
How you know it's over: The COMEX Registered inventory will suddenly, violently drop below 30 million to 40 million ounces. * At that level, a single billionaire or a consortium of industrial tech companies could legally demand delivery of the entire remaining exchange inventory in a single month.
Once the inventory hits that psychological "Redline," the market psychology flips from "trading" to "hoarding." Everyone holding a long contract will instantly demand physical delivery because they know the guy behind them in line won't get any. It triggers a literal run on the bank.
The Endgame
You will not see an official announcement. You will see a Friday where the NASDAQ drops 500 points, the Dollar Index spikes, and the algorithms try to smash silver—and instead of crashing, silver spikes $8 to the upside.
That is the moment the matrix breaks. The correlation to tech stocks will shatter, and silver will begin to trade solely on its physical scarcity.
-SilverDaddy
Calabasas, CA USA
Facebook Group: THE SILVER FORUM
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Very good futuristic analysis
One to print out and place on your desk and refer too in the coming months
Thank you
Well put thank you- agree and looking forward to being involved in this crazy lunatic market- at the very least interesting at the most? Whats your stack looking like!!
Fat and shiney
Great info David, Thanks
Just saw a retail site charging 5x what I just paid for the same purity. Knowledge is power, no gatekeeping on my grey vendor
https://discord.gg/vJAGWDNa
Agree , Agree , Agree
However Bullion dealers here still use Kitco to value P Ms who in turn got their price from COMEX so it does have a disgusting relevance , Granny, Grandchild and uneducated will need to pay that bill that is hovering over them and suddenly remember silly Grandads stack that he was harping on about for the last 20 years of his life and cash it in at these super low prices .God I hate those guys at the CME
Refineries are maxed-out currently. Choke point.
Can't meet demand with bars for the exchanges.
Not so in Queensland Australia although it is about 3 weeks since I enquired of course I am small beer but could get an appointment within two days and was told there was no great delay in process for say 10 kilo of scrap
Just saw a retail site charging 5x what I just paid for the same purity. Knowledge is power, no gatekeeping on my grey vendor
https://discord.gg/vJAGWDNa
"On February 25, 2026, CME COMEX silver trading was halted for 1.5 hours. After trading was reopened, it was announced that 31,828 contracts (159M oz.) were cleared while the market was suspended. What!?"
Yes, this "anomaly" was very noticeable. How can such a large volume be traded when trading on the exchange is halted? I'm sure that the small print makes such discriminatory trading strictly legal if not fair. Like all casinos, the house always wins.
The only good news is that they are being forced into such obvious desperation tactics which are increasingly obvious to all and are not sustainable.
Appreciate your work.
David by “it was announced that 31,828 contracts (159M oz.) were cleared while the market was suspended” do you mean these contracts were not honoured but cancelled?
I think it means they were cancelled or rolled over to another month
Maneco suggests that within that 90 minutes Comex employers were busy on the phone ringing these clients offering them special under the table profits such as 10% or 12.5% above ,not to stand for delivery ,hence the 31,828 clearance within those 90 minutes allowing the Comex to live another month or two . I think they are working on some survival plan of shocking proportions or allowing them two months to scoop up as much cheap metal before the inevitable collapse. With the current prices of PMs I would say it is the latter ,by all accounts there is no first in first served routine for delivery so if the "da Boyz" as Ed Steer calls them have a contract they can fix it so they are first in line to get paid out in the physical silver , there is still 60 million ounces in the vaults available for delivery that is still a HUGE amount of money at $75.00 an ounce when you know its real value is at least $150 possible a week after the collapse of COMEX and as that "far from stupid " Neil Oliver forecasts $500 in six months time . Hey and you know what ,maybe we can get the Washington boys to give us a bail out , you know the old Capitalise the profits and socialise the losses trick ,you know Silly Sam and Mad Mary from Middle America will never work it out ,what's another straw on this Donkey's back
Sorry that should be MICHAEL OLIVER not Neil Oliver he is the long haired Scotsman who is brilliant in his own right
An acquaintance had a man inside Keith Prowse ticket office 1980s- they had all the West End theatre tickets, every show to sell in the street. Allowed street market to set the price- strangely more honourable than this lot. I’ve stacked what I can and now sit and wait it out. Thanks for the heads up above
The shenanigans on COMEX on 25Feb25 and since seem positively suicidal. I can only assume that bullion banks have decided to sacrifice the COMEX in an attempt to save their own skins?
Tough to say right now.
Keep stacking!
Thank you David.
With all these markets running out of silver and becoming discredited, who or what will be the ultimate market makers. Coin stores?
I'd prefer it to be the miners themselves.
Thank you David for everything and this informative article. Interesting times ahead; much health, happiness and success and that you for providing this invaluable insight that so few can see, understand or comprehend at the moment.
Great day, week and year ahead! Thank you.
Thanks, Silver Daddy….great analysis from where I sit. 3 questions: (1) What might be the impact of the Iran war where 3 countries are torching the silver in their weapons supply? (2) there’s a new HFT in the market, Jane Street (In cahoots with JPM?) pushing silver up & down, effect?, (3) SHFE has outlawed the HFTs & other trading groups; can we hope for the CMX to do the same? Thanks again.
Linda - do you have anything from the SHFE that details their suspension of traders.
I will look, but likely it is thru @KingKong9888. Do you follow him? Very knowledgeable about SHFE & SGE. Also @DarioCps or @sorenthek
King Kong said to he thinks the Comex halted trading and cash settled with big premium to those demanding physical. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MR3J4Jm56b0
Was that the day they settled 36k+ contracts while trading was halted? They never said “boo” about that trading halt.
Yes ma’am.
I usually follow manneco but missed that one!
Would be helpful to see the scenario in historical terms, e.g. compare the imbalances and the demand with prior times.
Very good article.
Shanghai clamping down on manipulation, unlike the West, unfortunately not a surprise
That's the story.
We need primary source data.
David, please go to https://www.shfe.com.cn/publicnotice/notice/ for official announcements from The Shanghai Futures Exchange. The top announcement currently is titled "Announcement on regulatory measures to restrict open positions for some customers."
Thanks T for finding that.
Dated today, weeks later. Interesting.
Open Interest down at 2013 levels I think I saw? Nobody wants to be rug pulled so can't blame any longs but exit liquidity leaving with them.