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The Lusty Servant's avatar

The war wild card appears not to be playing out so well. China has a vital interest in Iran. China looms over the situation in the Middle East, quietly supporting its ally. Perhaps they have calmed the Iranian leadership into not doing anything rash. If the war wild card bounces back at he who played it, and the longer this kinetic phase of the ongoing conflict lasts the more likely that is to happen, safe haven demand for precious metals will only increase. Who knows, perhaps even bewildered consumers in the West might begin to pick up signals from beyond the increasingly threadbare war propaganda. I hear this morning from the BBC that the Iranians fired a missile at a hospital in Israel. That would be highly ironic were it true, but whatever hit the hospital, I doubt it was a targeted projectile from a clearly circumspect Iran. We are at a peak psychological warfare. I am sure that can and will spike much higher, as will the price of gold. Will the leadership of the US-Israel combination be calmed? Are they able to be circumspect? I only discovered what money is a few years ago. Understanding the basics of money seems to have provided me with a sounding board. I am not so much of a derivative of my country's fiat currency - which is the ephemera called Sterling - as I once was. i.e. I am not continually falling. Maybe I am getting a bit wiser too, or perhaps I am just a bit less stupid, but whatever happens next, we already know that the immediate future will be 'historical'. Regardless of race, religion, nation or political persuasion, and regardless of our level of complicity, we all now must face the consequences of America entering the Thucydides Trap. (And yes, I think they are already in.)

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No1's avatar

Well, if Hormuz closes, PMs might drop, but silver should stay the course as you need silver in bombs 😋. My best guess: the markets will nose-dive, as everyone will want to cash out (and most liquid goes first). Then PMs will recover and take off.

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David Jensen's avatar

The bond market is burning down and will result in currency crisis.

Metals are the anti-paper.

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Oz HillBilly's avatar

They are still controlling the US Ten year yield and have so for many years. As soon as it goes close to 4.60%, you can be sure it will go back down in the days after.

Nobody knows what will happen in the future, that is the only certainty. Greg Hunter from USA watchdog had his youtube backdated after been shut down for 4 years, nearly every expert over ten years of interviews on the show has now been wrong when you go back and review the years of interviews with most of today's well known public economic and geopolitical youtube commentators.

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No1's avatar

Long term you are right of course. But short-term there will be a great dip to buy.

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KoDeMondo's avatar

Thank you for your great work!!

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Tom's avatar

David, some of my ideas about money.

Today we think it’s normal that the government creates it and controls it.

Except that’s not true. Money creation is the monopoly of private owner central banks.

Nixon closed the gold window in August of 71.

So France and many others were draining all the gold we had.

From like 20,000 tons to maybe 8000

Now that gold France took home were $20 gold coins.

See are government could only get money by taxing it from use.

The mints just turned any gold you took to them and turned it into a coin for no charge.

Gold was coined because if not, how could you use it.

It had to be assayed and coin.

So now once they took gold away from Americans at the point of a gun.

The central bankers turn coins into 400 oz bars store in England and NY.

This was brilliant.

You could no longer use it in that form

Take possession of a bar, brinks had to get it.

Now what, you have to send it to Switzerland to be melted and put in to a 400 os bar and then shipped to the UK.

Round trip cost was very high.

So the gold was stored underground and people would set the fix. Remember the fix.

The bankers could now set the price where ever they wanted.

No completion for their fiat.

They could have minted it all into 1 oz coins and put them underground

but then the cost to remove it and take position was nil

That’s why all gold prices we see are 400 oz bars that never leave the vault.

Remember the photo of Queen Elizabeth among all gold bars.

See we have the gold, the Queen is are gold seal.

Could have been lead bars.

What do you think.

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Joseph Feury's avatar

Powerful article backed up which makes your work invaluable to anyone who encountes you and your information. Been following the financial system more intuitively last 4 years and you are now my preferred analyst from a long list.

Things are speeding up, let's see what unfolds and when for the financial system and what it means for society and gold, silver, platinum. I hold a little gold and silver in a vault in Switzerland, hopefully ok, and let's see what unfolds which seems to be speeding up.

Looking forward to your next work and talks with Maneco64 and others.

Thank you for your work and all lucky enough to encounter you and moreso if can fathom the invaluable analysis you provide. Thank you and have a great day.

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David Jensen's avatar

Thank you Joseph - very gratifying to hear that you find the work helpful.

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No1's avatar

Joseph, understand that even Switzerland has risks (I went into a lot of depth here: https://substack.com/@no01/note/p-164516463). There's nothing better than a "boating accident" to "loose" your PMs.

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Joseph Feury's avatar

No1 I know, I really want to hold everything but no silver market in Ireland for silver 1000oz bars and 23% vat. When I originally purchased I did not think PM would stay suppressed for so long. Now in a predicament sell bars for coins CG and VAT taxes. Unfortunately Ireland does not have a silver market so that is why in Switzerland and lower VAT rates. Need to think, but kinda trapped in this situation with taxes and Irish market for silver which does not exist. Thank you.

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No1's avatar

The way I think about it is: buy & forget. Put it in your will for your kids. Ok, you could sell silver and buy some gold/silver junior miners/explorer to get a multiple in fiat return (above the return that you would get if you sell your PMs). But if you can buy 31kg silver, I doubt you need the cash. So: buy & forget. What I don't like about the picture though are storage & insurance costs.

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Joseph Feury's avatar

Well all in in PM and storage and insurance costs are proving difficult you are right. So closely monitoring the situation and making storage payments. Between a rock and a hard place me.... Will keep monitoring things with articles from David, you and others. Hopefully we can continue our souvernity without surveillance through CBDC, tokenization, Digital currency etc. Let's see, things are speeding up and great article you wrote, read it all.

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