Brilliant breakdown of the supply crunch dynamics. The part about risk managers forcing institutions to cover unbacked positions actually captures something most anlysts miss - once that cascade starts, theres no orderly exit given the 2B oz paper overhang. I saw similar forced liquidations play out in nickel markets back in 2022, but the silver story feels way more structural since industrial demand cant just pause.
I was thinking the same thing this morning--but literally. The re-pricing of commodities seems like the beginning of the crack up boom and possibly end-times (though I'm not implying it happens tomorrow).
The collapse of the Roman Empire was quite different, but over all, it took several centuries. Our interconnected world and global economies will probably speed that somewhat?
What replaces it though? Couldn’t one make an argument that globalization has made it harder for a single empire to fail? The two big to fail argument? All other economies will work to keep the center mast from collapsing?
Good point. Human nature suggests that stability allows 'abusive relationships' to continue. I keep hoping that the american people can surrender their dominance. But, that is not likely??
David, outstanding insights. I, and no doubt many others, would love an article or two that delves into GOLD with the same clear, factual and insightful analysis. Thank you.
David, following others, thank you for an awesome commentary over the last 12+ months. As a cantankerous old git who loves watching the undeniable facts slowly emerge, reading and listening to your unflappable, dead-pan, fact-based delivery (on @maneco64's youtube channel for example) has been comedy gold.
My concern is that as we approach the 'event horizon' where the large involved financial institutions find they cant control things and their position becomes under existential threat they will turn to:
1. Declaring a disorderly market and start cancelling trades, as happened with Nickel in (I think) 2023
2. Drag up the devil in the contract detail and tell people who thought they held silver with their ETF investor accounts that they dont, and it was just an IOU.
As I dont have a Blofeld-like secret vault of physical silver, only an Ishares EFT (ISLN) my concern is 1 and 2 above, or some other diabolic response that will make me (and lots of others) very sad and very cross.
Does anyone have a view on this? (probability? Method?)
Thank you David. I had hoped that that outcome needed something with such hideous consequences it would really need a monumental problem before it was deployed.
If you don't emotionally need the 'action' supplied by the instant liquidity, I would consider cashing your ETF, in order to buy what ever physical that yields?? jmo
Well Nick, you don't need a Shaman to figure this out. Sell those ETF's and buy a few hundred ounces of silver to start. Buy 100 ounces a week, and in a year you will be right as rain. Haven't these blood-sucking vampire bankers taught you anything. BUY PHYSICAL!!! Sheesh Nick get with the program.
I have a Uk personal pension that I am using. Its not possible to buy physical silver (or gold) in these (legal restrictions).
Withdrawing funds incurs high tax. I am trying to work around this but if you have ever fought your (repellant, dishonest, amoral, thieving) tax authorities you know how difficult it is.
As I am an ex-pat I am looking to move my pension into a NT (No Tax) code. Then it will be happy days.
Physical silver (and gold) is indeed my end-game, I am trying to work out how close to the 'event horizon' we are.
One (probably useless) route I am looking at is selling my ETF silver to close the trade and secure the profit, then re-investing as a new trade. Given the tales I have read abuot, for example, unrolling of the Madoff caper, I dont think that will protect me if the shit does hot the fan before I can spring my escape.
Opinion - not financial advice: If I had a pension account, nobody would be able to keep me in it given my world view.
I'd sell, withdraw, pay the tax and invest in physical assets that are now skyrocketing. Counterparty risk exists for any asset held in the financial system.
This is what my brother did as well. He woke up during Covid, withdrew one lump sum payment and took a a huge tax hit. Most of us thought he was crazy to do so at that time. But he had the conviction in PM's real price value, emotional fortitude and patience (long term investment horizon). Let's just say no one in our family thinks he is crazy now and he's doing better financially than all of us. *Not financial advice*
I have to get out of bed at 3 am anyway, so now I have got into the habit of checking out the Kitco price and this morning my eyes nearly popped out of my head I watched it cross over $115 went back to bed feeling good got up this morning and do not feel as good but Silver is still up but crazy times , still very happy I am all in
I have some money outside my SIPP (self managed) pension. and I am in the process of taking money out, but not hitting the 40% tax bracket. I also live in Singapore which is a far friendlier place than the UK so all is not lost.
I agree with counterparty risk point. Didnt JP Morgan say "Gold is money, everything else is credit"
Great read. The demand elasticity will bring some sobriety to the market however. At $100+ Silver, 20-30% of silver demand is and will be substituted, thrifted, or outright excluded from industrial consumption. Speculation aside, industrial demand is 60-70% of annual consumption. Silver is an industrial metal, it is grounded in the same structural supply-demand fundamentals as all other commodities (with the exception of Gold).
Ignoring the 1) holders of billions of oz. of silver spot contracts in London that are realizing they hold only paper promissory notes and will increasingly ask for delivery to get out and 2) rapidly increasing investment demand and monetary demand.
Uff, you're wrong again... Just because the world is crazy about physical silver, does that mean London doesn't know what it's doing? It knows exactly what it's doing... Study the banks' hedging procedures... After such an extreme price increase, so much metal will flood the market that the price will easily return to $55... There is plenty of silver in the US. The market lacks liquidity because banks can ignore the price in such madness... Silver hasn't been a monetary metal for 100 years... People just hoard it to make money for their homes... ufff In 2011, the US was "crashing" and silver was at $50, only to go down to $12 during COVID... But now it will be different, right?😀😀
Before the end game plays out and silver goes to unobtainium, the governments and central banks may step in in order to curb the power of silver. Here are some ways they may do it: a) make the purchasing of silver illegal b) make the possession of silver illegal leading to expropriation c) put extortionate taxes on silver.
That is the whole point of 'Holding Physical'. Eventually, the government will lose their Authority. That is as certain as the collapse of Fiat currency. At that point, we still want to have Real money to buy food! Being "Rich" in an imaginary currency seems futile??
They’ll do everything possible under the sun, including lying, cheating and stealing, to find a way to bail out the banks, and screw over the taxpayers. That’s just how the bought and paid for politicians “work”.
Is the GSR the space to watch, then? I’m reading that when it hits certain milestones, people anticipate “trading up” to gold. That raises 2 questions:
Is that potentially a meaningful source of silver into the market (as in, do hedge funds play this or just retail)?
Brilliant breakdown of the supply crunch dynamics. The part about risk managers forcing institutions to cover unbacked positions actually captures something most anlysts miss - once that cascade starts, theres no orderly exit given the 2B oz paper overhang. I saw similar forced liquidations play out in nickel markets back in 2022, but the silver story feels way more structural since industrial demand cant just pause.
2026 will be biblical.
I was thinking the same thing this morning--but literally. The re-pricing of commodities seems like the beginning of the crack up boom and possibly end-times (though I'm not implying it happens tomorrow).
The collapse of the Roman Empire was quite different, but over all, it took several centuries. Our interconnected world and global economies will probably speed that somewhat?
What replaces it though? Couldn’t one make an argument that globalization has made it harder for a single empire to fail? The two big to fail argument? All other economies will work to keep the center mast from collapsing?
Good point. Human nature suggests that stability allows 'abusive relationships' to continue. I keep hoping that the american people can surrender their dominance. But, that is not likely??
It could play out under the too-big-to fail theory, but the world is undoubtedly de-globalizing now.
When the suffering coming by the banker class is fully felt, who will still want to walk into their oneway digital trap?
Only the deaf ,dumb and blind
So to answer your question , millions , especially when offered a free hamburger and chips
Thank you Vincent! Probably more lik billions though.
The banking executives will be on Greenland when the pot boils over....
😂
$5038 gold and $105.38 silver as of 645pm EST!
David, outstanding insights. I, and no doubt many others, would love an article or two that delves into GOLD with the same clear, factual and insightful analysis. Thank you.
Gold does not seem to have the same strategic imperative?
Gold is much more liquid right now with metal leased into the market by the BoE.
$5090 and $108.89 as of 915pm EST!
Awesome article. Fantastic timeline to be associated with tangible, physicals.
Men with foresight, skills, shall be rewarded on this beautiful timeline.
Thank you David.
Insightful as always.
Great analysis , thank you David.
EDM retail down to mere crumbs Ag
David, following others, thank you for an awesome commentary over the last 12+ months. As a cantankerous old git who loves watching the undeniable facts slowly emerge, reading and listening to your unflappable, dead-pan, fact-based delivery (on @maneco64's youtube channel for example) has been comedy gold.
My concern is that as we approach the 'event horizon' where the large involved financial institutions find they cant control things and their position becomes under existential threat they will turn to:
1. Declaring a disorderly market and start cancelling trades, as happened with Nickel in (I think) 2023
2. Drag up the devil in the contract detail and tell people who thought they held silver with their ETF investor accounts that they dont, and it was just an IOU.
As I dont have a Blofeld-like secret vault of physical silver, only an Ishares EFT (ISLN) my concern is 1 and 2 above, or some other diabolic response that will make me (and lots of others) very sad and very cross.
Does anyone have a view on this? (probability? Method?)
London cash contracts for silver are contracts of sale between two parties. There is no exchange per se involved.
To overthrow the contract, you would have to void contract/common law which would be the end of London as a financial center.
But, when one of the "counter parties" is a large multinational bank, and the other is a private individual, who is going to win?? It wouldn't be me!
And yes, I think we are seeing "The end of London"?
Thank you David. I had hoped that that outcome needed something with such hideous consequences it would really need a monumental problem before it was deployed.
If you don't emotionally need the 'action' supplied by the instant liquidity, I would consider cashing your ETF, in order to buy what ever physical that yields?? jmo
Well Nick, you don't need a Shaman to figure this out. Sell those ETF's and buy a few hundred ounces of silver to start. Buy 100 ounces a week, and in a year you will be right as rain. Haven't these blood-sucking vampire bankers taught you anything. BUY PHYSICAL!!! Sheesh Nick get with the program.
Afternoon dude,
I have a Uk personal pension that I am using. Its not possible to buy physical silver (or gold) in these (legal restrictions).
Withdrawing funds incurs high tax. I am trying to work around this but if you have ever fought your (repellant, dishonest, amoral, thieving) tax authorities you know how difficult it is.
As I am an ex-pat I am looking to move my pension into a NT (No Tax) code. Then it will be happy days.
Physical silver (and gold) is indeed my end-game, I am trying to work out how close to the 'event horizon' we are.
One (probably useless) route I am looking at is selling my ETF silver to close the trade and secure the profit, then re-investing as a new trade. Given the tales I have read abuot, for example, unrolling of the Madoff caper, I dont think that will protect me if the shit does hot the fan before I can spring my escape.
Opinion - not financial advice: If I had a pension account, nobody would be able to keep me in it given my world view.
I'd sell, withdraw, pay the tax and invest in physical assets that are now skyrocketing. Counterparty risk exists for any asset held in the financial system.
This is what my brother did as well. He woke up during Covid, withdrew one lump sum payment and took a a huge tax hit. Most of us thought he was crazy to do so at that time. But he had the conviction in PM's real price value, emotional fortitude and patience (long term investment horizon). Let's just say no one in our family thinks he is crazy now and he's doing better financially than all of us. *Not financial advice*
"A bird in the hand....."
When I retired seven years ago, I sold out of my plan and bought physical silver, an enormous amount. I’m very happy!
Me too Mike
I am all in
I have to get out of bed at 3 am anyway, so now I have got into the habit of checking out the Kitco price and this morning my eyes nearly popped out of my head I watched it cross over $115 went back to bed feeling good got up this morning and do not feel as good but Silver is still up but crazy times , still very happy I am all in
I have some money outside my SIPP (self managed) pension. and I am in the process of taking money out, but not hitting the 40% tax bracket. I also live in Singapore which is a far friendlier place than the UK so all is not lost.
I agree with counterparty risk point. Didnt JP Morgan say "Gold is money, everything else is credit"
There are SIPPs in the UK which allow investment in Gold (only)
You should be able to transfer out of your current SIPP into one of these.
A 17.00 USD spread in the day's range in silver today
Just crazy stuff ,hold on ,it's going to get bumpy
Great read. The demand elasticity will bring some sobriety to the market however. At $100+ Silver, 20-30% of silver demand is and will be substituted, thrifted, or outright excluded from industrial consumption. Speculation aside, industrial demand is 60-70% of annual consumption. Silver is an industrial metal, it is grounded in the same structural supply-demand fundamentals as all other commodities (with the exception of Gold).
Ignoring the 1) holders of billions of oz. of silver spot contracts in London that are realizing they hold only paper promissory notes and will increasingly ask for delivery to get out and 2) rapidly increasing investment demand and monetary demand.
$270T of stocks and bonds in the world that are in trouble as rates rise. https://jensendavid.substack.com/p/the-astounding-scale-of-gold-and
Uff, you're wrong again... Just because the world is crazy about physical silver, does that mean London doesn't know what it's doing? It knows exactly what it's doing... Study the banks' hedging procedures... After such an extreme price increase, so much metal will flood the market that the price will easily return to $55... There is plenty of silver in the US. The market lacks liquidity because banks can ignore the price in such madness... Silver hasn't been a monetary metal for 100 years... People just hoard it to make money for their homes... ufff In 2011, the US was "crashing" and silver was at $50, only to go down to $12 during COVID... But now it will be different, right?😀😀
Before the end game plays out and silver goes to unobtainium, the governments and central banks may step in in order to curb the power of silver. Here are some ways they may do it: a) make the purchasing of silver illegal b) make the possession of silver illegal leading to expropriation c) put extortionate taxes on silver.
That is the whole point of 'Holding Physical'. Eventually, the government will lose their Authority. That is as certain as the collapse of Fiat currency. At that point, we still want to have Real money to buy food! Being "Rich" in an imaginary currency seems futile??
These banks have had COUNTLESS OPPORTUNITIES TO COVER with recent dips. If the didn’t, put people in prison & let the banks fry! 🤡
They’ll do everything possible under the sun, including lying, cheating and stealing, to find a way to bail out the banks, and screw over the taxpayers. That’s just how the bought and paid for politicians “work”.
25B oz above ground ? If COMEX only has 400mM oz, where is the rest ? Sterling teapots ?
actaully yes, teapots and machines (:o
... chat GPT says up to 2.5B oz bullion, coins, dore, jewellry 25-26B oz, industrial medical/military etc 25-26 B oz
I've seen analysis showing 8B oz. in coins and bars
Is the GSR the space to watch, then? I’m reading that when it hits certain milestones, people anticipate “trading up” to gold. That raises 2 questions:
Is that potentially a meaningful source of silver into the market (as in, do hedge funds play this or just retail)?
Who will be willing to part with the gold?
Chat GPT is notoriously biased. As bad as Wikipedia.