The mainstream media's "silence" regarding gold and especially silver is remarkable.
They're spreading the usual drivel, typical chart analyses, bubbles, etc.
No fundamental analysis whatsoever.
The major players seem to want to cover up the explosion in gold and silver prices.
One can certainly speak of existential problems in the financial sector. And thus prevent public panic.
Private demand for silver is apparently rising everywhere. This has multiplied silver's potential as money, a means of payment, a medium of exchange, and a store of value.
It seems to me, therefore, that private investors, due to the lack of investment opportunities in gold and silver, are turning back to BTC, BCH, and Monero. BTC is rising again. Monero has risen from $400 to $600 since January 11th. These three are the only decentralized cryptocurrencies.
As expected, the resilience of cryptocurrencies is being significantly strengthened. I had anticipated this. LoRaPay is being introduced. LoRa is a radio standard. Originally designed for IoT, LoRa's long range and very low power consumption have led to its repurposing as a crisis-proof communication technology. This was followed by LoRa Mesh, enabling data networks outside the confines of the state-controlled internet. LoRaPay, for example, allows commerce without government interference.
The BIS quarterly report is timely and relevant to the current situation.
The BIS sees itself as the central bank of central banks and the supreme supervisory body, signaling risks.
The BIS also downplays the rise in gold and silver prices. On the other hand, they report strong repo movements, naturally without mentioning any connections.
All in all, everything points to a "Great Reset" and a silent, albeit public, feud between East and West.
I think negotiations between the largest financial market participants and economic blocs are certainly in full swing.
The 470-fold paper silver fraud cannot go unpunished in these circles without accusations, action, and demands – I simply cannot imagine it happening. Who demands what, who has to give in, and how will they give in?
BRICS seems to hold the upper hand in terms of physical assets.
The West holds the upper hand in terms of the artificial financial system and its unprecedented artificial complexity.
Since neither East nor West can afford a collapse of the financial and monetary system, an agreement must be reached.
But the hawks, emotionally overexcited and lacking empathy, can also make catastrophic mistakes. Perhaps this is why the flames under the pot have been turned up high again in Iran.
The East is again at an advantage here, because they have lived under the repression of the Western financial and monetary system for years and decades AND have already begun to cooperate outside of these systems.
The City of London Corporation must essentially be eliminated. It is the spider at the center of the entire financial industry's web.
and Mesh networks are incredibly useful in creating an alternative to the all-seeing internet of everything that the rulers are close to completing.
i'm just checking, are we aware that both 'east' and 'west' are controlled by the same financial power, and that this power is moving wealth fro the west to the east, an asset emigration that as has happened with every currency reset in the past 600 years? everyone (aside from the west) selling off U.S. Treasuries is the clearest indicator of this.
the doc 'monopoly: who owns the world?' sums that opaqueness up well, but anyone can easily verify for themselves.
corporations run the world, but who owns the corporations? the biggest shareholders are always blackrock, vanguard and state street, among other major investors.
okay, so who owns blackrock et al.?
according to the deepest you can go - each other!
if that isn't a reason for their so-called CEOs to be hauled into congress i don't know what is, but of course, whomever owns these colossal investment banks also owns every major politician and every government, including their militaries and legal systems.
they have been price suppressing gold and silver for decades to hide their money printing - a giant ponzi fraud to steal the entire world form the common people whose birthright is is to share.
i always like making sure people are aware of this...peace :-)
And it seems probable that the situation can only get worse as producers sell their metal to the highest bidder - increasingly China which also now has export restrictions to make matters even worse. Why would a producer sell through the LBMA or Comex system when they can get higher prices elsewhere?
There is also the possibility that producer nations, increasingly understanding that they have been screwed for decades, will start controlling exports or even nationalizing mines. This does, I think, suggest that caution should be applied when investing in pure Silver-mining equities invested primarily in countries other than Western nations. That applies especially to LatAm countries after recent geopolitical events and threats.
Your observations are very insightful, and they pinpoint the core contradictions in the current global macroeconomic and geopolitical competition. The "ineffable" complexity you mentioned is precisely what we face at this turning point due to the unprecedented changes we've witnessed in decades.
If this article is even 50% true, then the paper silver system is more fragile than anyone wants to admit. 62,000 tonnes in cash/spot claims vs. 1,416 tonnes of deliverable metal? That’s a 43:1 leverage ratio hiding in plain sight. It’s not a conspiracy—it’s just counterparty risk on steroids. This isn’t about ‘when silver moons’ — it’s about how many IOUs break before people realize paper isn’t metal.
How does this work. I’ve been so frustrated seeing the silver miners being held back, as silver continues to march upward. My silver mining stocks are not giving the leverage that I was expecting.
I suspect that many silver investors are following charts and expecting pull-backs that haven't come as this price surge is due to a rush to secure physical metal and not normal trading action.
There is also the issue of naked shorting in the equity markets.
Please elaborate on your comment about naked shorting in the equity markets. What does this have to do with silver? Who or what is affected? What are the implications
Poet- below is right....but at some point, real silver miners must out perform-catch up...
again...they have done alright, but ..very..dependent on when you bought...
only some times..do miners 2x-3x vs metals...some thing is holding them back....
AG now up +4$ in china so thats 100 million usd.. more for First majestic silver.....
which I doubled down on, after lagging too much...So I am good now...)))
I wonder how futures work...Do you get the "value when you short, DEposited into your account, as you "sell" it, basically as a lown to use into something else..??
I have heard the expresssion...sell silver to buy...copper....ect...??
"London trading data indicates that gross trading volumes in the London Silver Market surpass 700M oz. on an active day"
No one should accept that these volumes are factual. "Churn" is a tool and technique which is commonly used by large market participants to influence prices and demand. There might be relatively few "Real" trades, with the rest being done inhouse or between colluding parties? The true volumes are only exposed by how many physical ounces are delivered at the end of the month.
This proves what you mean by "impractical": the vast majority of trades are just numbers jumping on a screen, not credit-based position pledging; they are merely a visual transfer of power.
The rush to buy silver appears to be mostly industrial demand. I say that because huge investor/speculator demand would carry over into the silver miners also. This should happen but not until a larger percentage of the investing public understands what is happening. The first sign would likely be in the silver ETFs as not many people have the expertise to select individual miners.
I think that would be the place to watch for a turn in the silver miners.
I think Don is both right and somewhat wrong also. I have heard him say that for quite some time.
He is right in the sense that a fear trade, which he thinks would involve a stock market downturn would do the trick. That certainly should move people toward hard assets which would also translate into the miners.
That scenario is possible but it may be a while before that occurs. The Fed will continue to pump dollars into the market as they absolutely do not want a correction, especially before the midterms. It is typically a losing battle to fight the Fed.
That is happening and will increase with the replacement of Powell. That very action may hold up the stock market but also will increase inflation. Anyone paying attention will see that and will try prevent the further erosion by using precious metals as a hedge. This also leads them to the miners without a stock market crash.
I also see some of my previous miner penny stocks perking up just the last couple of weeks.
AYA silver, Cassiar gold, and even my biggest laggard Teuton resources are now catching a bid. These smallish companies are pretty easy to move either direction without a lot of money going into them. However, it is a theme that should move up the food chain as more money is shifted into larger miners.
So I don’t think a stock market downturn is necessary for the miners to move up. It would certainly help but I think the trend is already established. We will see. I expect bigger movements come March or April.
- In today's article 13 Jan, you mention: "The Gross trading volumes in the London Silver Market surpass 700+Moz. on an active day."
- In reference 2.1 article Oc13: London cash/spot market with daily average trading volume over 600 million (M) oz. per day of these spot silver contracts
Numbers match well.
Q1) I assume that you also refer to the 600Moz as being the "Gross daily trading volume".
Q2) These daily average trading volume are: Delivery on Demand promisory notes right, but not immediate ownership(not yet vaulted(registered) in london)?
In Reference article Jan 01:
Q3) What do you mean with "Net Settled Basis Daily silver trading of 214Moz", and Gross settled/ cash/setttled contract?
That is 3-3.5x less than the gross daily trading mentioned in 2) above.
In the same article the Gross from Loco Survey: The daily net settled turnover translates to a total gross daily turnover in the London silver market of 2.146B oz. or 10x the net settled amount.
90% of which for immediate ownership. Meaning 1.93Moz..
I don't understand why you use a: low 2x daily turnover multiplier, this implies total standing claims for silver in the London cash/spot market of 3.86B oz.
Q4) I can't open the Loco Survey to understand what the 2.146Boz means, and why that is 10x higher than gross daily turnover.
Q5) What happens with the other 10% not for immediate ownership?
Q6) Then why multiply by 2x to get the total standing claims? Why not a different number. This because I don't understand the meaning between Net(Moz) to Gross(Boz). Why is it the 2.146/3,86Boz that matters and not the 600-700Moz?
The Net is bad enough: with daily trading 600-700Moz that makes it around 2x more than available 385Moz.
The Gross/ cash-settled would be much worse 2B-4B compared to the available 385Moz.
Q3) "" Using even a low 2x daily turnover multiplier on this 90% of Gross, this implies total standing claims for silver in the London cash/spot market of 3.86B oz. ""
Q3.1)What does this 2x daily turnover multiplier mean, on what is already the Gross, why does this have to be calculated ontop?
And why is there therefore a difference between "standing claims" and "Net settled Daily Trading volume".
Q3.2) Why is 90% of net settled not equal to: "immediate ownership". But 90% of Gross is?
I don't understand why the gross maters, if it will in either case be the net settled that at the end of the day is going actually "be available for delivery".
I think my problem is of definitions in the "rights/law" between the different terms.
- Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding futures contracts that have not been settled or closed, serving as a key indicator of market activity and sentiment.
- Gross Daily trading(1.93Boz) are all the ounces being sold and bought. And like you said Pretty much all(90%+) are being bought/sold at "spot/cash price".
-Turnover often means: the replacement rate of an asset.
Q) How does one calculate Open Interest? Is it the Gross Daily Trading measured in ounces divided by the lbma standard:physical 1000Troy ounce bars to get the "number of contracts"? Or how they calculate the "open interest"?
Q) Why do you multiply Gross Daily trading by 2xTurnover to get "total outstanding claims"? Because Gross implies both buying and selling. Not all will go to "standing for delivery"? Would you not better divide it by 2?
Saying half(divide by 2)of total sales/buys would be actuall metal demand that is expected to be wanted for delivery. Not multiply by 2.
You multiply it by a daily turnover of 2x. Making 1.93Moz gross trading to around 3.86Boz of "total outstanding claims".
Q) What is the difference between "total outstanding claims" and "open interest"?
Q2) Why do you take the Gross Daily Traded Volume of around 10x net settled, and use it to calculate the "daily silver demand", instead of the net settled amount?
And assume that around 90% is traded daily in immediate ownership cash/spot contracts. Thus being 214Moz*90%=192Moz.
Q1) Is it right for me to assume that "net settled" means the daily paper "promisory note for delivery". The owner would have the right to receive it whenever they decide. Usually in the devliery months: March, May, July, September and December?
Often the net settled daily volume however by the traders are bought and sold the next day. So never really asking for delivery...ever. Except for industrial use and some investing demand?
That would be a net settled daily trading amount of around 214Moz. [ Jan 01 Article].
I understand how you feel. Trying to unravel the complex relationship between money supply, paper currency circulation, and the real economy is like trying to piece together a giant, ever-changing jigsaw puzzle. It's not just a mathematical problem; it involves the underlying logic of macroeconomics, and it's perfectly normal for it to feel "difficult to explain."
The mainstream media's "silence" regarding gold and especially silver is remarkable.
They're spreading the usual drivel, typical chart analyses, bubbles, etc.
No fundamental analysis whatsoever.
The major players seem to want to cover up the explosion in gold and silver prices.
One can certainly speak of existential problems in the financial sector. And thus prevent public panic.
Private demand for silver is apparently rising everywhere. This has multiplied silver's potential as money, a means of payment, a medium of exchange, and a store of value.
It seems to me, therefore, that private investors, due to the lack of investment opportunities in gold and silver, are turning back to BTC, BCH, and Monero. BTC is rising again. Monero has risen from $400 to $600 since January 11th. These three are the only decentralized cryptocurrencies.
As expected, the resilience of cryptocurrencies is being significantly strengthened. I had anticipated this. LoRaPay is being introduced. LoRa is a radio standard. Originally designed for IoT, LoRa's long range and very low power consumption have led to its repurposing as a crisis-proof communication technology. This was followed by LoRa Mesh, enabling data networks outside the confines of the state-controlled internet. LoRaPay, for example, allows commerce without government interference.
The BIS quarterly report is timely and relevant to the current situation.
The BIS sees itself as the central bank of central banks and the supreme supervisory body, signaling risks.
The BIS also downplays the rise in gold and silver prices. On the other hand, they report strong repo movements, naturally without mentioning any connections.
All in all, everything points to a "Great Reset" and a silent, albeit public, feud between East and West.
I think negotiations between the largest financial market participants and economic blocs are certainly in full swing.
The 470-fold paper silver fraud cannot go unpunished in these circles without accusations, action, and demands – I simply cannot imagine it happening. Who demands what, who has to give in, and how will they give in?
BRICS seems to hold the upper hand in terms of physical assets.
The West holds the upper hand in terms of the artificial financial system and its unprecedented artificial complexity.
Since neither East nor West can afford a collapse of the financial and monetary system, an agreement must be reached.
But the hawks, emotionally overexcited and lacking empathy, can also make catastrophic mistakes. Perhaps this is why the flames under the pot have been turned up high again in Iran.
The East is again at an advantage here, because they have lived under the repression of the Western financial and monetary system for years and decades AND have already begun to cooperate outside of these systems.
The City of London Corporation must essentially be eliminated. It is the spider at the center of the entire financial industry's web.
https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2512.pdf
The crypto space is units of nothing.
You are in the wrong space to pump that stuff Eckstein.
I know, nevertheless, those stuff started moving the same time. Just an observation.
and Mesh networks are incredibly useful in creating an alternative to the all-seeing internet of everything that the rulers are close to completing.
i'm just checking, are we aware that both 'east' and 'west' are controlled by the same financial power, and that this power is moving wealth fro the west to the east, an asset emigration that as has happened with every currency reset in the past 600 years? everyone (aside from the west) selling off U.S. Treasuries is the clearest indicator of this.
peace.
Yes, it is more than unclear what role the Chinese government plays. Kissinger set the stage decades ago.
If one considers the centers of global hegemony, these centers are characterized by one quality: lack of transparency.
And the global hegemon is likely smart enough to be decentralized. Therefore, places of lack of transparency are an indicator of potential bases.
This lack of transparency is visible in various places, or rather, invisible:
- Switzerland, NGO network
- BIS, Switzerland, Basel
- City of London, BoE, Offshore bases
- Vatican City
- China
- US D.C.
- US D.C., Group of Thirty
- ...
the doc 'monopoly: who owns the world?' sums that opaqueness up well, but anyone can easily verify for themselves.
corporations run the world, but who owns the corporations? the biggest shareholders are always blackrock, vanguard and state street, among other major investors.
okay, so who owns blackrock et al.?
according to the deepest you can go - each other!
if that isn't a reason for their so-called CEOs to be hauled into congress i don't know what is, but of course, whomever owns these colossal investment banks also owns every major politician and every government, including their militaries and legal systems.
they have been price suppressing gold and silver for decades to hide their money printing - a giant ponzi fraud to steal the entire world form the common people whose birthright is is to share.
i always like making sure people are aware of this...peace :-)
And it seems probable that the situation can only get worse as producers sell their metal to the highest bidder - increasingly China which also now has export restrictions to make matters even worse. Why would a producer sell through the LBMA or Comex system when they can get higher prices elsewhere?
There is also the possibility that producer nations, increasingly understanding that they have been screwed for decades, will start controlling exports or even nationalizing mines. This does, I think, suggest that caution should be applied when investing in pure Silver-mining equities invested primarily in countries other than Western nations. That applies especially to LatAm countries after recent geopolitical events and threats.
Your observations are very insightful, and they pinpoint the core contradictions in the current global macroeconomic and geopolitical competition. The "ineffable" complexity you mentioned is precisely what we face at this turning point due to the unprecedented changes we've witnessed in decades.
The geopolitical fallout in the miners is something I wish people talked about more.
I’ve tried to run the game theory on it several times. Way too many unknown factors.
Ironically, I’m not sure if US based miners are BETTER or WORSE
I worry about the orange man nationalizing the mines or windfall taxing them
If this article is even 50% true, then the paper silver system is more fragile than anyone wants to admit. 62,000 tonnes in cash/spot claims vs. 1,416 tonnes of deliverable metal? That’s a 43:1 leverage ratio hiding in plain sight. It’s not a conspiracy—it’s just counterparty risk on steroids. This isn’t about ‘when silver moons’ — it’s about how many IOUs break before people realize paper isn’t metal.
The silver shorts have hedged by beiing short on the...silver miners.....))))
How does this work. I’ve been so frustrated seeing the silver miners being held back, as silver continues to march upward. My silver mining stocks are not giving the leverage that I was expecting.
Please explain. I do think you are right
I suspect that many silver investors are following charts and expecting pull-backs that haven't come as this price surge is due to a rush to secure physical metal and not normal trading action.
There is also the issue of naked shorting in the equity markets.
Please elaborate on your comment about naked shorting in the equity markets. What does this have to do with silver? Who or what is affected? What are the implications
Read about naked shorting of equities and what Patrick Byrne found out. It allows stock prices to be suppressed for a period of time.
https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-07-23/s70723-20162302-331156.pdf
Poet- below is right....but at some point, real silver miners must out perform-catch up...
again...they have done alright, but ..very..dependent on when you bought...
only some times..do miners 2x-3x vs metals...some thing is holding them back....
AG now up +4$ in china so thats 100 million usd.. more for First majestic silver.....
which I doubled down on, after lagging too much...So I am good now...)))
I wonder how futures work...Do you get the "value when you short, DEposited into your account, as you "sell" it, basically as a lown to use into something else..??
I have heard the expresssion...sell silver to buy...copper....ect...??
I am just a rookie..still learning..too
LOL..'Ore (supposedly) in the ground, is a pig in a poke?' ????
Did you think about what Inflation does to a miner?
Inflation makes gold and silver go up
Funny, that Musk would rather fly to mars and mine metals, than pay a decent price here on earth....
Send Musk to mars, on a one way ticket...home
Mr Musk's offerings are slightly less credible than Mr. Trump's....
"London trading data indicates that gross trading volumes in the London Silver Market surpass 700M oz. on an active day"
No one should accept that these volumes are factual. "Churn" is a tool and technique which is commonly used by large market participants to influence prices and demand. There might be relatively few "Real" trades, with the rest being done inhouse or between colluding parties? The true volumes are only exposed by how many physical ounces are delivered at the end of the month.
In 2013, London traded 2.5B oz. a day in their silver market.
Wasn't that when Scotia Bank and others closed their metals trading divisions?
This proves what you mean by "impractical": the vast majority of trades are just numbers jumping on a screen, not credit-based position pledging; they are merely a visual transfer of power.
So.....how do we turn physical metal into owning a silver mine? The price is theoretically infinite unless we can get supply
Exactly!
The rush to buy silver appears to be mostly industrial demand. I say that because huge investor/speculator demand would carry over into the silver miners also. This should happen but not until a larger percentage of the investing public understands what is happening. The first sign would likely be in the silver ETFs as not many people have the expertise to select individual miners.
I think that would be the place to watch for a turn in the silver miners.
I agree with Don Durretts assessment that the miners won’t rocket until there is a “fear trade” on Wall Street from problems in the s and p
I think Don is both right and somewhat wrong also. I have heard him say that for quite some time.
He is right in the sense that a fear trade, which he thinks would involve a stock market downturn would do the trick. That certainly should move people toward hard assets which would also translate into the miners.
That scenario is possible but it may be a while before that occurs. The Fed will continue to pump dollars into the market as they absolutely do not want a correction, especially before the midterms. It is typically a losing battle to fight the Fed.
That is happening and will increase with the replacement of Powell. That very action may hold up the stock market but also will increase inflation. Anyone paying attention will see that and will try prevent the further erosion by using precious metals as a hedge. This also leads them to the miners without a stock market crash.
I also see some of my previous miner penny stocks perking up just the last couple of weeks.
AYA silver, Cassiar gold, and even my biggest laggard Teuton resources are now catching a bid. These smallish companies are pretty easy to move either direction without a lot of money going into them. However, it is a theme that should move up the food chain as more money is shifted into larger miners.
So I don’t think a stock market downturn is necessary for the miners to move up. It would certainly help but I think the trend is already established. We will see. I expect bigger movements come March or April.
Good insights here.
Fear trade might not happen before the mid terms.
Don’t fight the fed.
Wind is at our backs either way
Hi David,
I am trying to understand all the numbers over time. And there is something I don't fully understand yet...the paper/real-supply side.
I did/do make an effort as you shall see.
But even posing my confusion and questions was difficult.
I hope you understand it, but it is hard to articulate such a topic.
Maybe you can write an article about this, or comment below to give some help.
All numbers are approximations, as we can at best do that.
1) Current-Supply London.
1.1) This article.
In this article you showed that in October 10, it was revealed what the true floor was available outside of ETFs: 140Moz floor.
Some metal was flown from NY to London by end-December: 45Moz.
Making the total current "foat" in London around: 185Moz.
Therefore now a True buffer in London of around 45Moz.
----------------------------
2) For the Total- Supply Side:
2.1) [[Oct 13,2024 article: https://jensendavid.substack.com/p/new-york-silver-is-not-solving-londons]]
Here we can see that what is "Eligible in New York" is 340Moz
And we can see that the float in october was around 45Moz in London.
Exclu china, where it is only physical, no paper.
The west/LBMA&NYcomex free float would amount to about 385Moz total.
---------------------------------
My questions come from the Paper demand side. I don't understand how you come up to the Boz immediate physical delivery number:
2) Demand Side: Here I don't undrestand many terms.
2) [[Jan 01,2025 article https://jensendavid.substack.com/p/physical-shortage-stress-hits-global]]
- In today's article 13 Jan, you mention: "The Gross trading volumes in the London Silver Market surpass 700+Moz. on an active day."
- In reference 2.1 article Oc13: London cash/spot market with daily average trading volume over 600 million (M) oz. per day of these spot silver contracts
Numbers match well.
Q1) I assume that you also refer to the 600Moz as being the "Gross daily trading volume".
Q2) These daily average trading volume are: Delivery on Demand promisory notes right, but not immediate ownership(not yet vaulted(registered) in london)?
In Reference article Jan 01:
Q3) What do you mean with "Net Settled Basis Daily silver trading of 214Moz", and Gross settled/ cash/setttled contract?
That is 3-3.5x less than the gross daily trading mentioned in 2) above.
In the same article the Gross from Loco Survey: The daily net settled turnover translates to a total gross daily turnover in the London silver market of 2.146B oz. or 10x the net settled amount.
90% of which for immediate ownership. Meaning 1.93Moz..
I don't understand why you use a: low 2x daily turnover multiplier, this implies total standing claims for silver in the London cash/spot market of 3.86B oz.
Q4) I can't open the Loco Survey to understand what the 2.146Boz means, and why that is 10x higher than gross daily turnover.
Q5) What happens with the other 10% not for immediate ownership?
Q6) Then why multiply by 2x to get the total standing claims? Why not a different number. This because I don't understand the meaning between Net(Moz) to Gross(Boz). Why is it the 2.146/3,86Boz that matters and not the 600-700Moz?
The Net is bad enough: with daily trading 600-700Moz that makes it around 2x more than available 385Moz.
The Gross/ cash-settled would be much worse 2B-4B compared to the available 385Moz.
Gross trading volume is the total traded in London in a day.
The net settled clearing volume that the LBMA posts represents the net volume of trading between LPMCL member banks. https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/clearing-data
Buying and selling are netted-out to give the net settled amount.
In the 2011 Loco London Liquidity Survey the LBMA said that gross trading volume was 10x or more than daily net settled volume.
Recently the LBMA posted data indicating the ratio was much less now with no explanation as to why that was so.
https://jensendavid.substack.com/p/lbma-gold-and-silver-trading-volume
Ones I understand these questions of fictituos paper demand, to physical demand, I will have understood pretty much all your articles.
This is the most difficult part for me.
Q3) "" Using even a low 2x daily turnover multiplier on this 90% of Gross, this implies total standing claims for silver in the London cash/spot market of 3.86B oz. ""
Q3.1)What does this 2x daily turnover multiplier mean, on what is already the Gross, why does this have to be calculated ontop?
And why is there therefore a difference between "standing claims" and "Net settled Daily Trading volume".
Q3.2) Why is 90% of net settled not equal to: "immediate ownership". But 90% of Gross is?
I don't understand why the gross maters, if it will in either case be the net settled that at the end of the day is going actually "be available for delivery".
I think my problem is of definitions in the "rights/law" between the different terms.
Because scaling open interest from commodity exchanges uses gross daily trading volume.
It is a terminology problem I have.
- Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding futures contracts that have not been settled or closed, serving as a key indicator of market activity and sentiment.
- Gross Daily trading(1.93Boz) are all the ounces being sold and bought. And like you said Pretty much all(90%+) are being bought/sold at "spot/cash price".
-Turnover often means: the replacement rate of an asset.
Q) How does one calculate Open Interest? Is it the Gross Daily Trading measured in ounces divided by the lbma standard:physical 1000Troy ounce bars to get the "number of contracts"? Or how they calculate the "open interest"?
Q) Why do you multiply Gross Daily trading by 2xTurnover to get "total outstanding claims"? Because Gross implies both buying and selling. Not all will go to "standing for delivery"? Would you not better divide it by 2?
Saying half(divide by 2)of total sales/buys would be actuall metal demand that is expected to be wanted for delivery. Not multiply by 2.
You multiply it by a daily turnover of 2x. Making 1.93Moz gross trading to around 3.86Boz of "total outstanding claims".
Q) What is the difference between "total outstanding claims" and "open interest"?
Easily accessible online.
Compare to other metals markets.
DYODD.
I will check other metals aswell. This Gameboard sure has complicated rules and plays.
Q2) Why do you take the Gross Daily Traded Volume of around 10x net settled, and use it to calculate the "daily silver demand", instead of the net settled amount?
And assume that around 90% is traded daily in immediate ownership cash/spot contracts. Thus being 214Moz*90%=192Moz.
And that is the true daily demand.
I am using gross daily trading volume as published by LBMA since 2022.
90% to 95% is spot contract trading.
Even forwards require purchase of a spot contract to be created so virtually all contracts involve spot contracts.
It's all in the prior posts.
Take time to read and digest as I took time to research and write.
Q1) Is it right for me to assume that "net settled" means the daily paper "promisory note for delivery". The owner would have the right to receive it whenever they decide. Usually in the devliery months: March, May, July, September and December?
Often the net settled daily volume however by the traders are bought and sold the next day. So never really asking for delivery...ever. Except for industrial use and some investing demand?
That would be a net settled daily trading amount of around 214Moz. [ Jan 01 Article].
I understand how you feel. Trying to unravel the complex relationship between money supply, paper currency circulation, and the real economy is like trying to piece together a giant, ever-changing jigsaw puzzle. It's not just a mathematical problem; it involves the underlying logic of macroeconomics, and it's perfectly normal for it to feel "difficult to explain."
The silver penny is dropping. Isn't a panic inevitable sooner or later?
Retailers feeling the pinch.
Hardly! Western retailers can buy beiow spot in US/Canada/Europe, and then sell in Asia for a minimum 10% profit; minus freight.
Metals will top soon. Weekly Cycle high incoming.
post your supporting data.
I have a solution for the silver market, lol:
SOS MicroSilber Hand Cream
The company name "SOS" could hardly be more ironic.
The Cream ist either sold out or extremly expensiv.
Btw. that is silver usage that will never get back into the raw material cycle.
https://www.amazon.de/SOS-MicroSilber-Hand-Creme-medizinische-empfindlicher/dp/B0758FHBKP