Pt as part of the precious metals goup, in particular is very interesting, in part because physical supply is so much more restricted vs. gold and silver to just a handful of companies relying on primarily South Africa as a single (less than pristine) jurisdiction. About 30% of the mines, globally, are producing at a loss at these prices. In addition, from an article written by Trader Ferg on this platform recently, China holds 80% of the above ground inventory. Given that Pt is critrical in the PHEV and ICE automotive industry, and we have seen how scarce resources are now being used in trade negotiations, it's not hard to imagine a perfect storm emerging within the Pt (and PGM) niche. Cheers John
Thanks John - I've also seen estimates of very, very large stockpiles of silver that China has accumulated through its smelter industry. Billions of oz. IMO they hold these as long-term strategic stockpiles as well as assisting in price control over the years.
Please note also that ICE / PHEV vehicles now use high-performance palladium catalytic converters. The truck industry still uses platinum catalytic converters as platinum offers superior performance for diesel engines in comparison to palladium. Cheers.
Incredible detail, David — thank you for breaking this down. The persistent deficit and lease rate spike definitely paint a picture of a tightening physical market. One question I had: given the 3:1 gold-to-platinum price ratio vs. the long-run 1:1 average, do you see a structural reversion trade setting up here — or has platinum’s industrial role (vs. gold’s monetary premium) altered the long-term equilibrium?
I've only focused on stacking gold and silver, and am wondering what people's thoughts are on expanding into platinum or other precious metals as a response to this price move. Feels like potentially anyone starting out in stacking platinum in this moment might have missed the big move, and it'd be just a FOMO driven act of desperation to start acquiring platinum now.
David touched on the fact that internal combustion engines have, at least for consumer sector vehicles in recent times, made use of palladium for chemical reactions in the catalytic converters rather than platinum, so not sure if there is an investment story to acquire platinum for a looming supply crunch in industrial applications.
I've also heard some talking heads point out that platinum is not as easy to resell back into the market as gold and silver, as there is less retail side demand.
Are there any other precious metals out there that at this point in time are under valued and are positioned to be the next platinum to spike in value? Electrum, or any other such metals or rare Earth commodities?
Hi David, I've been trying to follow the happenings in S. Africa. Obviously if the country deteriorates further, so doesn't Platinum supply. Anecdotally, I have a relative there, born and raised and fairly wealthy on the older side ...He's never mentioned leaving until recently because of the danger. I don't see Platinum mining output doing anything but decreasing.
I don't have a price target Filip. What I see is shortage in the short term that will greatly pressure the London cash market. The high lease rates for platinum indicate something is up and given the very small global stockpiles, this will be very difficult to control for those short this very small market.
Pt as part of the precious metals goup, in particular is very interesting, in part because physical supply is so much more restricted vs. gold and silver to just a handful of companies relying on primarily South Africa as a single (less than pristine) jurisdiction. About 30% of the mines, globally, are producing at a loss at these prices. In addition, from an article written by Trader Ferg on this platform recently, China holds 80% of the above ground inventory. Given that Pt is critrical in the PHEV and ICE automotive industry, and we have seen how scarce resources are now being used in trade negotiations, it's not hard to imagine a perfect storm emerging within the Pt (and PGM) niche. Cheers John
Thanks John - I've also seen estimates of very, very large stockpiles of silver that China has accumulated through its smelter industry. Billions of oz. IMO they hold these as long-term strategic stockpiles as well as assisting in price control over the years.
Please note also that ICE / PHEV vehicles now use high-performance palladium catalytic converters. The truck industry still uses platinum catalytic converters as platinum offers superior performance for diesel engines in comparison to palladium. Cheers.
Incredible detail, David — thank you for breaking this down. The persistent deficit and lease rate spike definitely paint a picture of a tightening physical market. One question I had: given the 3:1 gold-to-platinum price ratio vs. the long-run 1:1 average, do you see a structural reversion trade setting up here — or has platinum’s industrial role (vs. gold’s monetary premium) altered the long-term equilibrium?
My pleasure Alexander.
In the near-term, I expect that there will be a rebalancing of the price of platinum higher relative to gold.
However, in the longer term I think that the monetary metals will outperform industrial metals such as the PGMs.
I've only focused on stacking gold and silver, and am wondering what people's thoughts are on expanding into platinum or other precious metals as a response to this price move. Feels like potentially anyone starting out in stacking platinum in this moment might have missed the big move, and it'd be just a FOMO driven act of desperation to start acquiring platinum now.
David touched on the fact that internal combustion engines have, at least for consumer sector vehicles in recent times, made use of palladium for chemical reactions in the catalytic converters rather than platinum, so not sure if there is an investment story to acquire platinum for a looming supply crunch in industrial applications.
I've also heard some talking heads point out that platinum is not as easy to resell back into the market as gold and silver, as there is less retail side demand.
Are there any other precious metals out there that at this point in time are under valued and are positioned to be the next platinum to spike in value? Electrum, or any other such metals or rare Earth commodities?
Platinum is not a monetary metal, however it is an essential metal.
Less liquid than gold or silver, however the inventories are so low the lesser liquidity may disappear as the scramble to secure physical accelerates.
China to establish Platinum price discovery ecosystem .
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/all-eyes-on-shanghai-platinum-week-as-china-advances-new-price-discovery-ecosystem-2025-06-06
Interesting.
Also note that cold fusion reactors us platinum anodes and palladium cathodes.
Not sure what the scale of consumption is for that application.
Hi David, I've been trying to follow the happenings in S. Africa. Obviously if the country deteriorates further, so doesn't Platinum supply. Anecdotally, I have a relative there, born and raised and fairly wealthy on the older side ...He's never mentioned leaving until recently because of the danger. I don't see Platinum mining output doing anything but decreasing.
Agreed - SA and Zim aren't bastions of stability.
David, if you please: what is your price target on platinum for this year? Thanks in advance!
I don't have a price target Filip. What I see is shortage in the short term that will greatly pressure the London cash market. The high lease rates for platinum indicate something is up and given the very small global stockpiles, this will be very difficult to control for those short this very small market.
Thank you, David.